A Paradox to Solve (house, quote, Ching, hands, Hang)

The Unfan · 09-28-2008, 08:16 PM

Its simple math. I have seen 21 but I've known the answer to this question since around 5th grade.

~~Fyrenza~~ · 09-28-2008, 08:17 PM

thats what i get for not watching tv

right you are UnFan

want another one?

RUPERT · 09-28-2008, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RUPERT

THIS IS RIDICULOUS!

OK, SO YOU HAVE 3 BOXES ON A TABLE.

TWO BOXES CONTAIN VOUCHERS FOR DOG****, ONE BOX CONTAINS A VOUCHER FOR A MEDIEVAL CASTLE. (OBVIOUSLY YOU WANT THE FRICKIN MEDIEVAL CASTLE).

SO YOU PICK A BOX AT RANDOM AND YOU CLUTCH IT TIGHTLY TO YOUR CHEST.

YOU ARE THEN GIVEN THE OPTION TO OPEN UP ONE OF THE 2 BOXES ON THE TABLE, (THE TWO THAT YOU DIDN'T PICK), AND SEE WHAT'S INSIDE.

OOH. WELL WHADD'YA KNOW, IT'S A VOUCHER FOR DOG****.

SO NOW YOU'RE LEFT WTH JUST 2 UNOPENED BOXES. ONE UNOPENED BOX IS STILL ON THE TABLE AND ONE UNOPENED BOX IS BEING TIGHTLY CLUTCHED TO YOUR CHEST.

ONE OF THESE BOXES CONTAINS THE CASTLE VOUCHER, AND THE OTHER CONTAINS THE DOG**** VOUCHER.

...HOW CAN THE ODDS OF PICKING THE MEDIEVAL CASTLE BOX BE ANYTHING OTHER THAN 1-IN-2, REGARDLESS OF ANY LAST MINUTE SWITCH??

Can you tell me where I'm going wrong please

Wifey Boozer · 09-28-2008, 08:21 PM

You have one post.

RUPERT · 09-28-2008, 08:22 PM

that doesn't make me any less of a person

Will you help me to understand?

~~Fyrenza~~ · 09-28-2008, 09:08 PM

by switching you double the probability of finding the car voucher from 1/3 to 2/3. Switching is only not advantageous if you initially choose the 'right' box, which happens with probability 1/3.

With probability 1/3, you initially choose one of two 'wrong' boxes; when the other 'wrong' box is opened, switching yields the 'right' box with more certainty. The total probability of winning when switching is thus 2/3.

**cardboard adolescent** · 09-28-2008, 09:08 PM

Ok, when you know nothing about the situation each box has a 1/3 chance of containing what you want.

So, to start, it looks like this: 1/3, 1/3, 1/3
then you pick a box, so now you have 1/3 chance of having it right, 2/3 that it's one of the other boxes.

when you reveal what's inside of one of the other boxes, there's still a 2/3 chance that you made the wrong decision, but now that entire 2/3 rests on the box that hasn't been eliminated, since you know it can't be the other one. so now your odds are 1/3 that you have the right box, and 2/3 that it's the other one. so you should switch.

**cardboard adolescent** · 09-28-2008, 09:11 PM

/redundancy

that's not really a paradox anyway, here's a fun paradox:

consider a set of all sets which do not contain themselves as a member. would this set contain itself?

or

the next statement is true:
the previous statement is false

~~Fyrenza~~ · 09-28-2008, 09:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cardboard adolescent

/redundancy

that's not really a paradox anyway

ok mr smarty pants

it was a paradoxical puzzle

are we happy now?

Wifey Boozer · 09-28-2008, 10:00 PM

If this sentence is true then Santa Clause is real.

THAT's a paradox.

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09-28-2008, 08:16 PM
The Unfan Musicbanteran against TX Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Not texas Posts: 1,434	Its simple math. I have seen 21 but I've known the answer to this question since around 5th grade. __________________ <3_BEAUTIFUL_HELL_FAIRY_<3: I Hate Logic

09-28-2008, 08:17 PM
~~Fyrenza~~ Account Disabled Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: high above the Republic of Texas Posts: 240	thats what i get for not watching tv right you are UnFan want another one?

09-28-2008, 08:21 PM
Wifey Boozer Prime Minister of Spain Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Troy side'ah the dirt, NY Posts: 359	You have one post. __________________ Circa Le Vintage (6:15:53 PM): http://www.musicbanter.com/introduct...llery-545.html deadreligionggjb (6:16:53 PM): Lol. deadreligionggjb (6:17:05 PM): You really gotta stop posting shit about our sex life on the internet. If you shut your mouth, woman, I'll buy you a coffee house.

09-28-2008, 08:22 PM
RUPERT Groupie Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 6	that doesn't make me any less of a person Will you help me to understand?

09-28-2008, 09:08 PM
~~Fyrenza~~ Account Disabled Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: high above the Republic of Texas Posts: 240	by switching you double the probability of finding the car voucher from 1/3 to 2/3. Switching is only not advantageous if you initially choose the 'right' box, which happens with probability 1/3. With probability 1/3, you initially choose one of two 'wrong' boxes; when the other 'wrong' box is opened, switching yields the 'right' box with more certainty. The total probability of winning when switching is thus 2/3.

09-28-2008, 09:08 PM
cardboard adolescent time isn't on my side Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Chicago Posts: 2,800	Ok, when you know nothing about the situation each box has a 1/3 chance of containing what you want. So, to start, it looks like this: 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 then you pick a box, so now you have 1/3 chance of having it right, 2/3 that it's one of the other boxes. when you reveal what's inside of one of the other boxes, there's still a 2/3 chance that you made the wrong decision, but now that entire 2/3 rests on the box that hasn't been eliminated, since you know it can't be the other one. so now your odds are 1/3 that you have the right box, and 2/3 that it's the other one. so you should switch. __________________ Free Music! Free Art! Free Prose! The Ocean Will Have Us All

09-28-2008, 09:11 PM
cardboard adolescent time isn't on my side Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Chicago Posts: 2,800	/redundancy that's not really a paradox anyway, here's a fun paradox: consider a set of all sets which do not contain themselves as a member. would this set contain itself? or the next statement is true: the previous statement is false __________________ Free Music! Free Art! Free Prose! The Ocean Will Have Us All

09-28-2008, 10:00 PM
Wifey Boozer Prime Minister of Spain Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Troy side'ah the dirt, NY Posts: 359	If this sentence is true then Santa Clause is real. THAT's a paradox. __________________ Circa Le Vintage (6:15:53 PM): http://www.musicbanter.com/introduct...llery-545.html deadreligionggjb (6:16:53 PM): Lol. deadreligionggjb (6:17:05 PM): You really gotta stop posting shit about our sex life on the internet. If you shut your mouth, woman, I'll buy you a coffee house.