User: DMBFFF/Some predictions for some of the 2020 elections
(my MH wiki)
wp:2020 United States elections
1. On 20 January 2021, Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th president of the US.
2. Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin: Biden will win at least 3 of these states.
3. Trump will win Texas. He will get at least 5% more from the total of Texan votes than Biden because, among other things, Texas Republicans will be good at voter suppression.
4. Trump will win 2 or fewer votes at wp: Dixville Notch, New Hampshire
5. wp:Jo Jorgensen
will get at least 3.5 million votes and at least 2.5% of the popular vote.
6. If wp:Amy Barrett
is confirmed by 3 November 2020, the GOP will lose its Senate majority.
7. If Barrett is confirmed by 3 November 2020, the combined proportions of the popular votes going to wp:Mitch McConnell
, wp:Lindsey Graham
, and wp:Susan Collins
in their races will be less than 165%.
8. The Democrats will maintain their House majority.
9. By the end of 20 December 2020, of CNN, Fox, ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, BBC, Australian BC, and CBC, at least 7 will have declared Biden the winner.
10. The Electoral College will give Biden the majority.
11. At least 5 electors in the Electoral College will vote for neither Biden nor Trump.
12. If there is election or post-election violence between 18 October 2020 and 31 January 2021, far fewer than 1000 Americans and/or those in the US will die of it. (hopefully none)
13. If Trump loses, between 3 November 2020 and 20 January 2021, he will grant clemency (i.e. pardons, commutations, and reprieves) to at least 300 people, and at lest 80% of them will be white males over 50.
14. By 31 January 2021, the wp:FEC
will report a +5% plurality of Biden over Trump.
15. By 21 January 2021, Trump will have exited the White House. (Of course he will complain and whine about it.)
16. The Liberals will win a majority in British Columbia, however slight. (wp:2020 British Columbia general election
(Note: The British Columbia Liberal Party is considered center-right.)
17. The Saskatchewan Party will maintain its majority in Saskatchewan. (wp:2020 Saskatchewan general election
18. wp:Jacinda Ardern
's NZ Labour Party will either win a majority, or need fewer than 5 additional seats from non-Labour to support her to form the government. (such as, but not necessarily, the Green Party)
This looks like it's happening, perhaps happened, already. https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/
19. In the wp:2020 New Zealand cannabis referendum
, at least 42.5% will vote Yes.
20. In the wp:2020 New Zealand euthanasia referendum
the majority will vote Yes.
21. For 3 November 2020, CNN, world-o-meter
and Wikipedia (e.g. wp:COVID-19 pandemic by country and territory
) will list fewer than 12 million Americans with covid-19 and fewer than 300 000 dead.
22. Sadly, contrary to Trump's prediction, there will be no vaccine for covid-19 by 3 November 2020 (at least not one that's safe, effective, and affordable for +90% of Americans—say enough for over 400 million people costing less than $50 billion total).
23. By 20 January 2021 fewer than 20 million Americans will have had covid-19, and fewer than 400 000 will have died of it.
24. By 20 January 2021 fewer than 600 000 Canadians will have had covid-19, and fewer than 30 000 will have died of it.