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duga · 12-06-2012, 07:55 AM

Tuna, I find your beliefs pretty interesting. I'll concede to a couple things... First, that it is theoretically possible to predict absolutely anything with an in depth enough model (this is what physics is trying to prove with their universal equation). Second, I agree our decisions are influenced by our past experiences. However, that's where we stop agreeing. While we may be able to PREDICT what someone will do if we know enough about them, we still cannot ultimately be 100% certain. I think the key here is to think about external interactions vs internal thought processes. They are 2 very distinct sets of probabilities that can be used to determine the CHANCE that something will happen. As easy as it is to use hindsight and piece things together as a caused b caused c and that's why x happened, you can't assume that you could have known x would happen because a, b, and c are all probabilistic models themselves. Think about this... You could potentially know every element that could influence a coin toss. Even so, all of those elements combine to form something that is still a prediction. No one will ever be able to say how a coin toss will end up with 100% certainty. We are only certain after the fact. This element of uncertainty is where free will lies. It's the ability for our brains to process patterns and probabilities and still make a potentially irrational decision. The human element.

If you are interested, look into some Plato. His theory about the limited vs. the unlimited might be very interesting to you. He talks about how the world is made from 3 basic elements: unity, the limited, and the unlimited. There must be unity and the world is in a constant struggle to maintain it. The struggle occurs because the limited is in a constant battle with the unlimited. The limited represents pure rationality, which is the element you are focusing on. If the world was nothing but the limited, there would be no potential for positive change. The world would simply keep recreating itself in the same way. The unlimited is creativity and the will to strive for more and go beyond our current boundaries. This is the element I am talking about. The ability for life to create unexpected change is the basis of free will. You are bound by your "unique DNA" as you put it. A mutation might occur to make your offspring more fit in the environment. This would advance our species. If we lived in a purely probabilistic universe as you think, an equilibrium of life and death within every environment would be reached, and no overall change would occur. This is clearly never the case... Humans rose above that and are constantly striving to overcome our environment, not just coexist with it.

We do live in a causal universe, but causality is finite. It must begin and end with a choice.

12-06-2012, 07:55 AM	#33 (permalink)
duga MB quadrant's JM Vincent Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Washington, DC Posts: 3,762	Tuna, I find your beliefs pretty interesting. I'll concede to a couple things... First, that it is theoretically possible to predict absolutely anything with an in depth enough model (this is what physics is trying to prove with their universal equation). Second, I agree our decisions are influenced by our past experiences. However, that's where we stop agreeing. While we may be able to PREDICT what someone will do if we know enough about them, we still cannot ultimately be 100% certain. I think the key here is to think about external interactions vs internal thought processes. They are 2 very distinct sets of probabilities that can be used to determine the CHANCE that something will happen. As easy as it is to use hindsight and piece things together as a caused b caused c and that's why x happened, you can't assume that you could have known x would happen because a, b, and c are all probabilistic models themselves. Think about this... You could potentially know every element that could influence a coin toss. Even so, all of those elements combine to form something that is still a prediction. No one will ever be able to say how a coin toss will end up with 100% certainty. We are only certain after the fact. This element of uncertainty is where free will lies. It's the ability for our brains to process patterns and probabilities and still make a potentially irrational decision. The human element. If you are interested, look into some Plato. His theory about the limited vs. the unlimited might be very interesting to you. He talks about how the world is made from 3 basic elements: unity, the limited, and the unlimited. There must be unity and the world is in a constant struggle to maintain it. The struggle occurs because the limited is in a constant battle with the unlimited. The limited represents pure rationality, which is the element you are focusing on. If the world was nothing but the limited, there would be no potential for positive change. The world would simply keep recreating itself in the same way. The unlimited is creativity and the will to strive for more and go beyond our current boundaries. This is the element I am talking about. The ability for life to create unexpected change is the basis of free will. You are bound by your "unique DNA" as you put it. A mutation might occur to make your offspring more fit in the environment. This would advance our species. If we lived in a purely probabilistic universe as you think, an equilibrium of life and death within every environment would be reached, and no overall change would occur. This is clearly never the case... Humans rose above that and are constantly striving to overcome our environment, not just coexist with it. We do live in a causal universe, but causality is finite. It must begin and end with a choice. __________________ Confusion will be my epitaph...