The Bruins are in tough against the Penguins but I think they have what it takes to expose their flaws. The key is obviously to stay out of the penalty box, but I'm not sure if it's a realistic expectation to have against Pittsburgh because they always seem to get calls no matter what. They absolutely need to keep penalties to a minimum though, because I really think that will be the deciding factor in the series should the Penguins win. Wither way, when the Pens are on the PP. the Bruins PK has to be at its best. On paper it seems to be a good match-up, but the Bruins PK faltered to end the year and it's been less than stellar in the playoffs. Plus, I don't think the Bruins' aggressive PK style bodes well against the Penguins' PP who have so many guys that can handle the puck so well; they can easily capitalize on opportunities where the Bruins find themselves out of position.
All that said, I'd take the Bruins even-strength play over any team in the league. Despite the Penguins dominant offensive personnel, I like the Bergeron line and the Krejci line to carry time of possession over both the Crosby and Malkin line, and to limit their chances overall. Those two can strike at any time and don't need many opportunities to find the back of the net though.
I also like the Bruins bottom 6 over the Penguins. Kelly and Peverley have been terrible offensively all season (they've been fine defensively), and that has continued into the playoffs, but I still have faith that Seguin can bring the best out of them if he has a good series. He looked good to close out the Rangers and his speed stretches the opposition's D like no one else on Boston.
The Bruins fourth line is what I consider the best in the league, and it has been for the last three years. Still, they have to be wary of getting stuck out there against one of the Penguins top 2 lines, which will be tough in Pittsburgh. Julien usually doesn't care too much if they're stuck out there against other teams' top lines, but the Penguins top 6 are a different beast.
The key to the Bruins should they pull off a win will be Seidenberg. I'd never be confident in anyone's ability to completely shutdown or contain Crosby or Malkin (even Chara), but I would feel 100 times better if we had a fully healthy Seidenberg to go up against one of them. Thing is, I don't know if Seidenberg is fully healthy; he had a rough go when he came back in game 5 against the Rangers, but he will have had a full week of rest to get closer to 100%. If he is at 100%, he is who I consider the most underrated defenseman in the NHL. He's consistently a playoff beast and can basically handle playing half of a game without breaking a sweat. I can't underestimate the importance of him being healthy, because they need him at his best all series long. I also think it's very important to get Ference back; Bartkowski has handled himself very well in all facets of the game, but, yet again, the Penguins are a different beast.
From the Penguins standpoint I really think four players are going to be key for them, outside of the obvious Crosby and Malkin: Sutter, Jokinen, Orpik and Murray. Orpik and Murray because they are the physical options on a more soft and mobile D, and they could be key to dealing with the size/strength of Lucic and Horton.
Also, the Bruins constantly force teams to put a greater focus on faceoffs, and Sutter seemed to be the guy that they'd really rely on for important faceoffs on the right side as a right-handed shot. The Bruins are weaker on the left side with Kelly and Campbell (who would faceoff with Sutter most often), but Kelly is still a faceoff ace and Campbell can hold his own. Sutter is a guy that can hold his own and is a reliable player, so I could see him getting a lot of ice-time, just for the fact that he's a reliable faceoff guy. I think the Penguins might dress Vitale for more help on faceoffs as well.
I see Jokinen as really important in this way as well. I think the Penguins may be more hesitant to dress him because he's one of their softer players, but he's actually usually been a Bruins killer, and he presents a strong faceoff ability on the left side. Crosby is a good faceoff man in his own right, but he's going to be getting a heavy dose of Bergeron this series, who can make anyone into a liability on the draws. Malkin already is a liability on faceoffs regardless of who he's facing off with, so he could really get exposed. Jokinen could see himself out there in a lot of defensive situations because of his ability on the draws because of this.
People may look at faceoffs as a trivial part of the game, but it's little things like this can influence a lot just in terms of the personnel you put on the ice in key situations. We saw Bozak play a massive role in his series just because of faceoffs, and then we saw Boyle play a huge role with the Rangers because of this as well. I think these two are the next guys up.
Overall though, I think I'm going to take the Bruins in 7.
And the Kings in 6. Quick is just on some next level **** right now. Not as thorough as my analysis of the other series, I know...
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