If we're talking about individual subgenres I'd have no problem saying Isis is the most influential band since 2000 for sludge metal. I know neurosis spearheaded the whole "atmospheric sludge" thing but they don't really sound that much like Isis imo. It's like comparing Godspeed and tortoise; same genre but different style. I think Isis' more drowning sound has been used by quite a few bands since that would probably cite Isis as a bigger influence than neurosis.
I do think it's pretty futile arguing about the most influential recent metal band as a whole. Maybe splitting it up into subgenres would be easier but still it's pretty early to tell and from my experience influence just means who's older anyway
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