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Originally Posted by TheBig3
It's a bit like a dozen knobs all be adjusted slightly. A little less on the sexism this time, a little more on Trump having a record, a little less memory that there was a black guy as president, a little more on "oh yeah, those tweets kinda bother me."
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In the abstract, I think you're right. But the primary guy who has to get this messaging across has trouble putting more than three sentences together coherently.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBig3
The Democrats can't run anyone. But the negatives of his opponent are down. His negatives are up, and 2018 proved the suburbs were getting nervous. Now he doesn't even have the economy.
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I agree mostly. But whether or not those suburban voters feel satisfied with their vote is up for grabs. As far as I understand it, many campaigned on kitchen table issues. Have they delivered on their promises? I don't know the answer to that. The economy might improve just enough that it will sway the vote of independent voters. Another angle on this - and ufortunately I don't have sources at the ready for this claim, so please correct me if you think I'm totally offbase - historically, US voters rarely vote out an incumbent in a time of crisis - the risk of a change in leadership in regards to a unified direction seems to scare many Americas. Granted, Trump has been a history-defying president so perhaps this trend won't hold any water this time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBig3
Keep in mind that even if Biden loses, if he allows us to keep the pressure up on the Senate and we take it, and keep the House, it would be a new dawn. And then the people crying about Biden can get what they want. More progressives in Congress and a Trump victory.
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This is true. If the Dems get both chambers of congress, Trump is going to be on a short leash. But I can almost guarantee that every Trump voter, when they are in that polling both, will be checking [R]'s across the entire ticket. There's no guarantee that Trump won't be able to get the popular vote this time. Though Biden appears to be leading in almost all of the polls, there's a serious enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden, and this gap is not in Biden's favor. I don't know for certain whether voter enthusiasm is a better indicator than polling for who will actually go and vote, but it is a factor that needs to be considered. Basically - it's a big "if".