This is how I suspect the election will go down: the Republicans will use all the voter suppression tricks they have already successfully used in Georgia and elsewhere:
- gerrymandering
- closure of polling stations
- relocating polling stations to places void of public transport
- "typo errors" in polling announcements to give wrong hours/locations etc.
- retweeting Russian media disinformation
- pedantic/intimidating voter registration
They'll also try out some new ones for mail-in ballots:
- reduced funding and service of the postal system
- arbitrary cut-off deadlines for postal votes
- accusastions of fraudulent postal ballots
With all those in place, they'll be in a position to either win some states or to get close enough to demand recounts, etc. The GOP won't flat out deny the election result if they lose, but they'll be piecemeal tipping the playing field in their favour with moves that are, each of them alone, plausably excuseable, for eg. "We had to move the polling station out of town for economic reasons."
And here's how the GOP could plausably scupper mail-in balloting with each move being, of itself, excusable: (i) reduce postal service, (ii) send out a mailshot with a "mistake" giving a ballot dealine of, say, November 10 (iii) on November 5, send out a correction with the real ballot deadline of November 6.
What worries me about the coverage of current poll numbers is that they are making the Dems complacent again. I think the media should analyse all poll results like this:
Poll: Biden leads at 60%
Adjusted for gerrymandering: 55%
Adjusted for inaccessible polling stations: 50%
Adjusted for mail-in ballot deadlines: 45%
I think it was one of the Lincoln Project guys who said that the Dems turn up to a knife fight with a soup ladle. Didn't we see that in the Barr hearing the other day? Some angry words, but no action. Why didn't they press Barr to recuse himself from any case in which there could be an appearance of impropriety? That could've stopped Trump "activating" Barr at will.
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"Am I enjoying this moment? I know of it and perhaps that is enough." - Sybille Bedford, 1953
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