Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBig3
The New York Times is not Fivethirtyeight. I trust nothing all the time but Nate Silver said throughout the Summer of 2016 the polling was trash, that it was not easy to predict, but also that polls showing Trump way behind as being unfounded.
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I like Nate Silver, I think he's a sharp guy. But Fiverthirtyeight's polls/forecast largely favored Clinton to win, like most polls did. To be clear, they gave Trump a 28.6% chance and Clinton a 71.4% chance to win on Election night.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
It could simply be that their polling/forecast methodology or samples were not as refined or accurate as they could have been, or - it could simply be that the 28.6% just happened to occur. But if you're going to hold up Fivethirtyeight's polls now as indicative of what's going to happen on Election day, or simply as reason for optimism, it may be prudent to explain why considering what their predictions were on the night of the election.
Were there problems identified in the methodology that were corrected? Factors that weren't taken to account that now are? After 2016, I simply have a difficult time putting much faith or stock in polls.