It's a variable, it's not the only driver. The roman empire didn't collapse because of class conflict. It collapsed for geopolitical reasons. Same with the late European colonial empires that collapsed after the world wars. Same for why America is losing ground to China as we speak.
That's another problem with Marx. He's monomaniacal. He only uses one lense.
He's definitely a prolific thinker with plenty of valid and useful critiques of capitalism. But whether you view him as a prophet or not he had a specific way of viewing history. If you wanna get down to it, Jesus and Muhammad also had some valid critiques of the systems that came before them.
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