Music Banter - View Single Post - A Paradox to Solve
View Single Post
Old 09-28-2008, 08:08 PM   #17 (permalink)
cardboard adolescent
;)
 
cardboard adolescent's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: CA
Posts: 3,503
Default

Ok, when you know nothing about the situation each box has a 1/3 chance of containing what you want.

So, to start, it looks like this: 1/3, 1/3, 1/3
then you pick a box, so now you have 1/3 chance of having it right, 2/3 that it's one of the other boxes.

when you reveal what's inside of one of the other boxes, there's still a 2/3 chance that you made the wrong decision, but now that entire 2/3 rests on the box that hasn't been eliminated, since you know it can't be the other one. so now your odds are 1/3 that you have the right box, and 2/3 that it's the other one. so you should switch.
cardboard adolescent is offline   Reply With Quote