Bitch the only thing I'm insisting on is that the right's rhetoric should be taken seriously and not be brushed aside as just culture war. Short term I'm concerned with copycat trans shootings, anti-trans legislation in red states, and even something crazy like a fertilizer bomb at a hospital that does gender affirming care or something.

Long term I can't predict anything with confidence but the right certainly want at the least for trans people to go back in the closet and be culturally invisible through both legal means (f.ex. through legal harassment of the parents of trans kids or outlawing genital surgery) and more violent intimidation.

The federal nature of the country makes me think the US would have to go through a literal civil war for, say, Texas to decide to go full Final Solution as the country burns, but if say another Katrina situation goes down and a part of the country becomes lawless for a period then I could see like a right wing militia moving into a place and trying to temporarily take over. It sort of happened already in Oregon in 2020 during the wildfires when militia ding dongs thought Antifa were setting the fires and set up checkpoints.

If something like that happened in a disaster area where the government had lost control I could see situations where a Proud Boy calls up his buddies to go lynch his trans neighbor and next thing you know a bunch of trans people are dead and nothing gets done about it and the "culture war" gets ratcheted up that much higher.

I'm not making predictions, I'm just taking the right at their word.

States across the country are passing vehemently anti-trans bills, the most watched show on cable news right now is hosted by an unhinged psychopath who keeps screaming "WEIMAR!" every time he sees an LGBTQ person and Neo-Nazis are showing up with guns to every drag bar they can find but sure move along everyone nothing to worry about.

Right so maybe you missed it but that was sort of a rhetorical question to point out that you basically oscillate between on the one hand talking about the right wing in this country (and their militias etc) are the new face of evil, poised to possibly bring about the next genocide, and on the other hand when it is convenient you will downplay the same people as losers who work at chilis and can't do **** compared to the dead eyed german soldier of ww1 that you seemingly respect so much.

The irony is that for the point we were discussing, it's not so directly relevant how combat ready the right wing militias are. Because if we are using the Germany example, they didn't take over by force. But the SA was a massive recruitment tool that helped them build the political movement they needed to take over.

But reading your post it sounds like you are basically saying you think there could be more shootings etc and legislation. I don't doubt that could easily happen. I don't think that is worthy of being called a genocide. The question is do you actually think those things will lead to something more closely resembling an actual genocide? It sounds like based on your post you are saying maybe it would happen in the aftermath of complete destabilization after some sort of natural disaster. Which is like a fringe sort of worst case scenario.

See, my whole thing is when people call it a genocide i actually don't even know to what extent they believe it. I feel like it's mostly just a poor rhetorical tactic.

Yes because the only two options are genocide or nothing to see here.

You were the one to introduce the genocide framing, not me. And if you can't wrap your head around my view of the right as both bumbling idiots ruining Thanksgiving and potential genocidal murderers then that's a you problem. I think Hitler would have also been an annoying guest at Thanksgiving with poor arguments for his boomer views (and a farter too). Being stupid doesn't stop them from killing you.

You're the one demanding we either produce documents for the trans genocide or calm down there's nothing to see here. There's valid reason for trans people to be scared for their safety or even just their right to exist openly and just because you think it's gay to take things seriously doesn't change anything.

I came out as trans nearly 10 years ago and I've never been more terrified than I am right now.

It's really f*cking bleak.

I did introduce it in order to ask your thoughts on it because it's a discourse I'm seeing online. I didn't pull out of my ass, and you very well know that. I asked you about it and let you answer for yourself, and to me it seemed you clearly picked a side and it was the one I expected you to pick. That's not a problem but don't offload it to me like I'm putting words in your mouth by saying you seemed to indicate you do think it's an appropriate framing.

And the disparity is not between them being dumb and yet still violent. When I said punching nazis can serve as a rallying cry for violence and retribution you shrugged it off by saying they're losers who work at chili's etc.

The same losers who you are worried about shooting up a drag show. If you can't see the obvious disparity between those two takes which is clearly a result of lazy ad hoc rationalizations and motivated reasoning on your part, that's a you problem.

that's complete nonsense. I said on several occasions I'm not saying they aren't facing discrimination and **** like that. Just that I don't think the genocide framing is at all correct.

Even the people who argue in favor of it tend to use arguments that focus of rhetorical strategy rather than facts. Like if we take it more seriously we can be better equipped to fight against it. But that ignores the fact that if people think there is an actual genocide on the table they might resort to much more drastic measures than you otherwise might. The potential for overcorrection or for the rumored genocide to serve as a rallying cry for the opposition. This seems to be the kind of threat you persistently ignore, as was noted in the above example about the "punching nazis" discourse

terrified that they're going to start loading people onto trains or terrified of anti trans legislation and acts of sporadic violence which aren't even remotely unique to that community?

Like I don't want you to read that as downplaying because I do think the latter is also worth serious attention. But can we just stop pretending like there's such a thin line between the two?