is it cause you don't believe there will be that bad of a recession or do you just think biden will win even if the economy crashes in 2023? It's hard to imagine him getting a second term under those circumstances regardless of who is running against him

Its because I think people are sick of Trump's ****. He only won in 16 by a handful of strategically located voted. Before anyone knew him, before Jan. 6. He can win the GOP nomination. He won't win enough votes in a general.

Re: the Recession, I won't pretend I know. But I really think there's a few economies right now. Some markets are overheated, others aren't. Housing is all but crashing, but eggs and milk are surging, while US gas is down $3. The recession should be easy in general. Though if you're in the wrong industry I think you're ****ed.

For politics, Biden keeps getting lucky. The GOP might blow a mid-term in which inflation is spiking, and the POTUS is ancient and unloved. Which says as much about them as it does Biden. I don't see any Republican that can both appeal to the base and the nation. Biden will not be bad enough - at this point in time - for anyone to replace him when they GOP freakshow hits fever pitch. A Qanon nut will do something stupid, or a governor is going to be shown as having done blackface, or a school shooting will happen, they won't be prepared, and they'll sink.

Obamacare and Abortion. The GOP wanted action for years and when it came time to speak to it, they failed. The Reagan Revolution is out of ideas. That's the assessment from Sept. 2022.

I think biden beat Trump because of covid. If we are in the midst of a bad recession I expect a similar fate for biden regardless of the opposition. He ran on not being Trump last time. I don't think that line is going to carry you as far when you are the incumbent and **** is on fire.

The UN just said something about the fed and other monetary institutions are dragging us into a global recession with the rate hikes. Things can get quite bad.

A recession isn't inherently bad. It does t have to be 10% unemployment. It could be 2%. There's just too much money in the economy right now for prices to stay normal. And it's unbalanced.

I've been laid off before. It sucks. No questions. But I also didn't get unemployment - so long as we don't let anyone starve/get evicted I think 2-4% is reasonable.

Mind you, Congress has a lot more tools than the Fed. No idea what the Dems are doing.

I doubt the Dems have any idea what the Dems are doing.

The devil is in the details...

Average long-term US mortgage rates dip to 6.66% this week

Now he's got the stoner vote. All they need to do is get them out of the house to ... oh. Wait.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzoRo_FeDrs

there are different types of recessions and it depends on your status and job field


also if ww3 does kick off and USA and RUssia both get MAD the one good thing we wont have to pay rent or mortgage anymore cus our houses will be gone thats if we survive the Nuclear blast

Good. About goddamn time.

biden smokes weed ..???? prob his son is a druggie why wouldnt he be ..???

What's it like, just occasionally bouncing off the sides of reality?

freedom and calamity

How does a Yarvin simp define freedom?

He probably lost the stoner vote when he picked Kamala as his VP...

New episode of Joevahkin drops today! Here's a sneak peek:

when was the last good recession we had?

I'm not saying that you're technically wrong but it sounds like hopium to me.

Like I'm not saying a bad recession is going to happen Im just going off what articles are saying. But I'm saying if they're is then I expect Biden to lose more likely than not.

Hopium? That some new drug??

https://cdn11.bigcommerce.com/s-j3pt...580614.png?c=2

'Nuff said.

The last good one meaning effective one? That depends on your morals I guess, they're all "good" in that they end bad practices e.g. Housing speculation in 2008. You could also say Paul Volker's insane increase on interest rates in 1979 drove inflation way down. That's a major one. Savings & Loan Crisis in the late 80's was minor, and the dotcom bust in the late 90s didn't seem catastrophic (unless you were working for pets.com)

Hopefully that gives you an answer, but I'd need to know what you mean by "good recession."

Edgy economics bois are still boring as fuk.

...what?

Come on that isn't even a hard joke to parse. "Good recession" sounds like something a hypothetical edgy econ nerd would say.

I guess I don't get what makes it edgy

You don't get that it kinda sounds insensitive and detached?

I mean I'm sure the great depression sparked some policy changes too lol. This is honestly a bizarre argument on your part.

Even if you make the argument the 2008 crisis was somehow good cause of whatever policy change you think it sparked, that's like giving credit to the arsonist after firefighters put out the fire. I don't even know what you mean by housing speculation ended after 2008, I don't think that is true at all. But even if it is true you can hopefully see the flaw in this logic.

Similarly, with the 1979 rate hikes you can argue that was a harsh but necessary monetary policy that as a negative byproduct caused a recession. In fact, according to wiki it actually caused two recessions as well as long term damage to the manufacturing in this country, especially in specific rust belt areas that have never really managed to fully recover. So yes, still falling short on good examples of recessions not being bad.

Getting back to the current situation, you could potentially argue the rate hikes are actually good monetary policy in the long run, but if they cause a recession, that is a negative byproduct at best. That byproduct will still cause short and/or potentially even long term pain, and it can also still hurt Biden even if you think the monetary policy that spurred it on is a necessary measure.

But it doesn't even seem like that is necessarily the case here. It just came out yesterday that yet another expert is saying that the Fed is dragging us in to an avoidable recession through their monetary policy:

https://fortune.com/2022/10/09/reces...amed-el-erian/

So unlike Volcker who was cleaning up a previous administration's inflation problem, the Fed is at least in large part dealing with a crisis they helped exasperate in the last couple years. According to some people anyway.

The alternative is that the price of everything continues to increase. We have social programs for the unemployed. If eggs cost $15 a dozen, you're on your own.

I'm not numb to the idea that this is going to **** the working class. I'm pissed about it to. But the solution is Congress doing something. And since half the country is in the death grip of a fascist, I'm not sure what there is to do.

That's really not a satisfying response. I hope you know that. You started this by saying "recessions aren't necessarily bad" when I asked you if the predicted recession of 2023 could get Biden ousted. Now you are shifting to the idea that it's just a lesser of two evils. But you're still making it sound like their hands were completely tied. What are your thoughts specifically on the article I posted which claimed otherwise?

I didn't read everything you wrote. I'll be honest, most people on the internet - including MB - don't really want to have an exchange of ideas. They want to be told their right. I'll read the article, but I assume you're actually looking for the truth and not confirmation. I also didn't see the question you asked.

My thoughts on the article:

This feels like the same point. It was characterized as transitory, and it was persistent.

Again. The Fed isn't blind to this possibility. Which is why they were taking baby steps initially. They want a "light rain" not a perfect storm.

As the saying goes, economists predicted the last 11 out of 5 recessions. Nevermind this inflation which they all openly admit they do not understand.

The rest of the article is just:

• Elon agrees
• Worst decision of the 110-year history
• Should have done more in 2020/2021

I'm taking this as monday morning quarterbacking. And a really lazy appeal to authority for weird internet nerds "even Elon - our lord and savior - said this guys right. And Elon built a tunnel!"

As for your question:

To elaborate, and I feel like I said this, I think it's going to be an imbalanced recession. As was inflation. The heartland got it real bad up front during the "transitory" days.

Yes, a recession could oust Biden. But so could anything else. I don't know why this is question - I feel like you left something out of the question. But the problem is the Fed and Congress are able to do a lot more than the President. And while most people don't know that, when it comes time to ask his opponent what they'd do, people are going to find unsatisfactory answers. Is the GOP going to subsidize eggs? At any rate, 2024 is a long ways away. Nothing happening now will factor in to that election. Remember how outraged people were about the Afghanistan withdrawal?

No one cares.

Does socialism not have recessions?

soo umm has ol joe himself said he will not run for re election ..??? cus even he knows he will lose ..???

The non-progression of your writing skills over the last decade needs to be examined by sceintists.

One would think it's gotten worse over time.

Scientists*

Pretty sure he recently proclaimed that he would run for reelection. Take it with a grain of salt.

New Joevahkin! Featuring Jordan Peterson, Arnold Schwarzanegger, and Zac Efron!

****ing hilarious!

:rofl::rofl::rofl:

:beer:

There's 7 episodes previous if you've never seen em before. Great stuff. :laughing:

I just skimmed. Funny as all hell but I couldn't sit thru the whole thing.
My attention span is pathetic these days.

Oh dear Chula, don't tell me you're using TikTok....:nono: