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-   Current Events, Philosophy, & Religion (https://www.musicbanter.com/current-events-philosophy-religion/)
-   -   A woman has two kids, one of them is a girl (https://www.musicbanter.com/current-events-philosophy-religion/68259-woman-has-two-kids-one-them-girl.html)

Salami 03-02-2013 03:47 PM
The probability is completely independent of whether or not the first child is a boy. When you toss a coin 99 times and get 99 heads, the probability of the next toss being a head is still 50%. However the chances of getting 100 heads in a row in the first place are very low.

Don't think there are any other biological factors to worry about here, the fertilised egg has even chances of gotting a Y chomosome as it has of not getting it.

Exo 03-02-2013 03:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Janszoon (Post 1292348)
Haha! But, really, the whole world is girls.
I'm a lady?

Bane of your existence 03-02-2013 03:49 PM
I'm going to say that at first, it's 50% that it's a girl. But you've already said one is a girl. Now, intuitively I want to say that it's obviously not 100% that the other kid is a boy, obviously. But I don't think you halve the remaining 50% for the next child either, so I went with 33%.
I wish I could justify my answer better. But all I have is that it seems like it's in between 50 and 25 for me.

midnight rain 03-02-2013 03:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Burning Down (Post 1292343)
Not that I think it would matter a whole lot, but do the kids have the same father? I read once during an anthropology class that if a couple has one child, subsequent children are more likely to be of the same gender as the first child. This theory wouldn't apply if the children had different fathers, because it's something to do with the process of meiosis in the man's body, and every man is different.

Same father: I'll say 66% more likely that the other child is also a girl. Not a poll option but I could add it for you if you want. (You already have 33% up there.)

Different father: 50% or less.
Yep same father

Janszoon 03-02-2013 03:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Exoskeletal (Post 1292351)
I'm a lady?
Yep.

Burning Down 03-02-2013 04:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tuna (Post 1292355)
Yep same father
Okay yeah, my vote stands at 66% likely that the second child is also female. It's a trend that I've also noticed with people that I know - a lot of them who have siblings tend to have more siblings of one gender then the other.

Exo 03-02-2013 04:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Janszoon (Post 1292357)
Yep.
Finally. Now I can be fabulous.

Scarlett O'Hara 03-02-2013 04:26 PM
I chose 100% for fun. It's all about probability but in this case also biology.

Goofle 03-02-2013 04:32 PM
Gotta be 50%. I asked Yahoo.

midnight rain 03-02-2013 04:48 PM
Ok two things:

1.) As Vanilla said, the emphasis is on probability and biology, but moreso probability.

2.) It's a counterintuitive problem.


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