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Old 12-15-2021, 09:05 AM   #11 (permalink)
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That was amazingly detailed and very informative and entertaining, RS. I may use some of that in my History of America journal in years to come.

However...

... it doesn't answer my question, not even peripherally. My question again was, to put it in simple terms, should a second Civil War break out, will they be left to it or will other nations join in, and whether or which, what do you see as being the outcome?
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Old 12-15-2021, 09:25 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Well, first of all, a second civil war will actually have to break out. The consensus in the news is that we are in for a period of a lot of civil unrest, riots, etc. but no actual war. I think it all depends on whether the military will take sides or if they'll also spilt into factions (considering the racial makeup, more likely the latter).

As far as the Europeans, and I mentioned this earlier, I would not trust America right now, even and especially with NATO. You really can't predict how were going to vote even if we had an even playing field. As noted in my rather long diatribe, our divisiveness didn't happen overnight. It's been brewing for a long time. The best I can tell you is to protect yourselves the best you can. I think your bigger problem will more likely be Putin as I suspect we'll become more isolationist from a global standpoint.

Could other nations be involved? Well, maybe, but I don't see that boding well whatever side (and I assume it will be on the anti-Trump side) it takes. Don't forget we still have the nuclear weapons and I don't see a fascist America being afraid to use them, foolish as it may be.
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Old 12-15-2021, 10:06 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Old 12-15-2021, 10:37 AM   #14 (permalink)
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I just wondered if a) NATO agreements and pacts would constrain European and British allies to come to, say, Biden's aid against Trump (or Abbot, or DeSantis, or whoever) and if they did not, and Biden won (all assuming there is a war, which of course we all hope will not be the case) would he then look unfavourably on the countries that were supposed to help and did not? Conversely, if Trump (as it were) was victorious, would he then go after the countries that had helped Biden? I feel it's a real damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. And yeah, I'm aware Comrade Werewolf will be out on the prowl, waiting to take advantage of the chaos. Hey, at least I'll soon (in relative terms) be dead and I have no kids to leave behind. Every cloud, huh?
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Old 12-15-2021, 11:06 AM   #15 (permalink)
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I just wondered if a) NATO agreements and pacts would constrain European and British allies to come to, say, Biden's aid against Trump (or Abbot, or DeSantis, or whoever) and if they did not, and Biden won (all assuming there is a war, which of course we all hope will not be the case) would he then look unfavourably on the countries that were supposed to help and did not? Conversely, if Trump (as it were) was victorious, would he then go after the countries that had helped Biden? I feel it's a real damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. And yeah, I'm aware Comrade Werewolf will be out on the prowl, waiting to take advantage of the chaos. Hey, at least I'll soon (in relative terms) be dead and I have no kids to leave behind. Every cloud, huh?

Yeah, that's how I kind of feel about it too. I would think that the NATO countries would be obligated to help whoever was in charge of the US in a war situation. After all, we (the US) went into Bosnia during that civil war. I think they'd admittedly be more willing to assist Biden or someone pro-democracy than some Trump-like autocrat, and yeah, it could backfire into a war on European land. It might be wise to just to stay out of the fray unless Canada ends up getting dragged into our mess.
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Old 12-15-2021, 02:58 PM   #16 (permalink)
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If anyone's interested there's a very interesting, utterly terrifying podcast called It Could Happen Here whose first few episodes are dedicated to a sort of thought experiment about how the next American civil war could happen. It begins by predicting basically the George Floyd protests a year before they happened and the mass violence that ensued, posits that a few hillbillies with IEDs could shut down the highway system along with much of the US economy, and uses ISIS's open source weapons manufacturing and Apple Store drones with bombs to counter the notion that an insurgency couldn't fight the US military. It's a very well researched hoot.

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-...-war-30751081/
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Old 12-15-2021, 03:15 PM   #17 (permalink)
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I think these podcasts may be bad for you
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Old 12-15-2021, 04:12 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Oh no doubt. I've listened to that **** like three times out of pure self abuse.
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There is only one bright spot and that is the growing habit of disgruntled men of dynamiting factories and power-stations; I hope that, encouraged now as ‘patriotism’, may remain a habit! But it won’t do any good, if it is not universal.
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Old 12-16-2021, 06:58 AM   #19 (permalink)
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As I'm sure you've seen close-up with Northern Ireland's troubles, TH, there are many terrible scenarios that stop short of actual civil war. If the present political rhetoric doesn't calm down, I think there will be more distrust, more paranoia, more riots, as RubberSoul mentions. Then may come a catalyst: an unacceptable election or some particularly partisan politician is assasinated. If that happens, whether it's out of revenge or because they see it as a green light, I can imagine the already well-armed far right cranking up the frequency of Waco / Timothy McVeigh type incidents. That will prompt more police/National Guard presence on the streets, which in turn will provoke the "hillbillies with IEDs" that Batlord mentions.

That kind of drip-drip-drip of violence is not something that I would wish on any country because of the way it erodes the quality of life of ordinary people, who are always ensnared in the crossfire. And once that level of violence and armed response sets in it's v difficult to dismantle, as we have seen in NI; grinding injustices for decades leading to 30-years of escalated violence I believe, and whatever they have today, which is probably simmering resentment between one citizen and the next. I don't know the facts because they are so depressing to explore.

Would the situation in the US actually escalate to old-style civil war like the US once experienced? I don't imagine so, and for that reason NATO/ EU would keep their distance from the whole sorry mess I'm sure. Only Putin would be keen to lend a surreptitious hand, and I think we can guess which side he'd be rooting for.
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Old 12-16-2021, 09:57 AM   #20 (permalink)
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Nah, shitlib.
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There is only one bright spot and that is the growing habit of disgruntled men of dynamiting factories and power-stations; I hope that, encouraged now as ‘patriotism’, may remain a habit! But it won’t do any good, if it is not universal.
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