Will Biden be another one term president?
 

I don't think it's too early to speculate/cast your predictions. In fact i think a true sportsman would recognize that if you wait till after the mid terms then your predictions don't count as much anyway....

So what do you guys think? Will Biden be a one term president? Really there are two separate questions to try to predict the answer to:

Is Biden even going to be the candidate?
If so, will he win?

His one piece of legislation he was gonna have to wave around for three years went in the ****ter and he did nothing about it. He could have been the guy who got us out of Afghanistan and gave us the next New Deal but now he's just a doddering old weakling.

But I don't know if Trump's toxicity will wear off by the next election and no other Republican is really gaining traction with him still on top. So I don't, man, but if it's Kamala v. Trump I say she goes down hard. Nobody ****ing likes her and Trump would eat her alive on stage.

I'm gonna go ahead and say i don't even know which legislation you are talking about but i assume it's that infrastructure bill or whatever i heard people talking about... I have not even tried to follow any of this **** closely since he got in office

With regard to him being the candidate... Even though i don't quite think he's where he needs to be to do another 6 or so years of this **** i also can't imagine the Democrats are going to think a winning strategy in 2024 is going to be to replace him with Kamala.

I dunno why but that just sounds like it shows way too much weakness for people to respect it. Like it will be so easy to construe that as they know the old man is ****in up so they had to retire him and get his VP in there... Not a great look.

So i don't really see him or the Democratic party going that route. Another possibility is someone could try to primary him like a few people were trying to do to Trump last time but yeah...i have a hard time seeing such an effort being successful either. So i am going with i believe he is absolutely going to be the Democratic candidate running for reelection in 2024.

As for will he win that's harder to answer. Usually i give the benefit of the doubt to the incumbent. I think the odds are basically in his favor but it feels like most of the energy is on the other side of the isle and really Trump was supposed to win 2020 but the pandemic spoiled that. So its possible team Trump could come back to grab that 2nd term by the pussy. And this time they will have the advantage of being able to use the last 4 years against Biden directly. But if i were forced to bet rn i dunno i think id give Biden the slight edge on being reelected.

If it wasn't for Stop the Steal and Jan 6 Trump would have more of a shot but I think he kind of poisoned his chances with swing voters. I'm not gonna underestimate American stupidity but only the base could stand by that ****.

My guess is he won't run, especially if his numbers remain in the tank. You guys are right about Kamala too, even her own people don't like her. If the Republicans are smart and they actually do care about democracy, they'll find a way to dump Trump (hey, that rhymes :D) and find someone a bit more moderate like my Governor, Larry Hogan.

As for the Dems, you know Kamala will run if Biden doesn't but I see her as Hilary Clinton light. Trump will wipe the floor with her for so many reasons, some legitimate, some not so much. The best bet might be to go with Pete Buttigieg, he's young, everyone seems to like him, and if the blacks don't go Kamala or bust (there was a controversial racial incident while he was mayor of South Bend), I think he has a great shot to win in 2024.

If they do decide to go with an African-American woman though, they can't go wrong with Stacey Abrams (hope she makes it as Georgia Governor)

Only uber Democrats like Pete Buttigieg. Nobody else cares cause he's just another boring preppy plank of wood who says what donors want him to say. He's like Biden but without the weird old man charm to take the edge off.

The left would be a bunch of mouth breathing morons if they trot out Biden or Harris. They're so unpopular even from their own party. It's like laying down and letting the right sh*t on their chest. Bad thing is unless somebody comes out of nowhere as a candidate, I don't think the left has anybody else. It's grim for democrats.

It's a catch 22 cause without the stop the steal narrative he would look pretty weak trying to run again after being beat as an incumbent....

Honestly i think swing voters might be over stated given how polarized everything is and how large voter turn out was in 2020.. doubling down on your brand no matter what might be a more effective move than trying to court the so called independents at this point...

the time to pick a better candidate was in 2020 lol. To not back your own incumbent is not a good play imo.

The irony is that his main argument in 2020 was that he was going to usher us out of the Trump nightmare and the impression that was out there was he might not even run for a second term but he will get rid of Trump and give the Dems some time to regroup. So much for that... If Trump tries to run again then you can hardly hang your hat and be like well my jobs done here... But only time will tell.

Considering his approval numbers never went above 50% and now he's down to his 30% base I think himbo voters who didn't take all his inflammatory rhetoric seriously in 2016 but went bug-eyed at Jan 6 will tank his chances. What the right needs is another Trump without all the baggage. Josh Hawley probably wishes he could be that dude but he's as boring as Pete Buttigieg. Ted Cruz would take that mantle but he's too much of a worm to capture any kind of excitement. Tbh the right should just beg Tucker Carlson to give up his show and run.

I honestly i have to wonder what kind of person would've voted for him in 2020 but consider jan 6 to be a deal breaker.... That was the climax of rhetoric he'd been engaged in for years

You're talking half his inner circle had turned against him, he was impeached twice and yet 70 million people or something like that voted for him. You could be right but as far as Trump goes i am kinda hesitant on claims that he's finally gone too far. I've just heard that one so many times. Time will tell.

It's possible he won't even win the nomination. Maybe that high turn out was just a function of partisan politics but i dunno... Felt like Trump vs anti-Trump more than D vs R

I think Trump went too far by racking up frequent flyer miles on the Lolita express. They should delay the Maxwell trial to shortly before the election coverage as a strategic move.

Kamala's bust is one of the few things she has going for her. For someone to potentially lose the double whammy takes a lot of effort, but she looks like she did it.
Plus you can't take seriously anyone whose name begins in Butt...
himbo?

What about the Duke of Death, OH's friend down there in Florida? Or YEE-HAW Abbot?

Let's not forget that Covid will definitely also have an effect on the next election, as it's wiping out Republican voters like there's no tomorrow.

When asked what was the most difficult thing about being Prime Minister, Mrs. Thatcher famously replied, "Events", and there are so many events that can happen between now and 2024. How, for example, will covid and the economy play out over the coming years? Will Trump's legal troubles make him ineligible to run?

But the big one to me is, Will the US still have a democracy in 2024? It's present democratic status is "backsliding". Gerrymandering, voter suppresion continues, as does the Republicans plan to build partisanship into the fabric of vote counting, etc, Here's an article from a British newspaper about what's happening:-

"Terrifying for American democracy": https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...up-republicans

Tied up to this is how much impact the televised Jan 6th Committee hearings will have. If enough people notice the coup that the GOP attempted, the Dems should be in a stronger position, because the decision should come down to democracy vs.third-world-type nepotistic autocracy. If they think that far ahead, even Trump supporters might not like the idea of Javanka coming back to snap up every White House job title available, like they did last time.

But even if things go well for Biden in the next 2 years, I suspect he will be a one-termer:

He's already the oldest Pres ever, I believe, so I think it would be credible if the Dems have him retire, out of concern for his age. And of all the people mentioned so far, I like the idea of Stacey Abrams best. She'll be a more vigorous fighter for the Dems when Biden's "reach across the aisle" rhetoric has floundered on the blatant obstructionism of the GOP.

Yeah you are right they have a valid reason to but i think the optics of it are bad enough they will avoid it. I could be wrong. So far he says he's running.

Edit: as far as a random challenger deciding to primary him... Like i said i could see that sure but i don't think it will be successful. If he isn't the candidate it will likely be cause he doesn't run. But i think he will.

If you go by history, then yes, Biden will run for re-election, but it wouldn't shock me if Biden fell on his sword for the good of the country.

Lisna is absolutely right about 2024. What happens that year will decide whether we remain some sort of democracy (let's face it, in reality, the US is an oligarchy that knows how to bamboozle the public). If enough people are wise enough to overcome the partisan gerrymandering and such (Ironically, Maryland is one of the very few states that gerrymander in favor of the Dems). then maybe we'll survive to set things straight. If not, well at least I can say most of my life was fairly stable. I fear for you youngsters here though.

I'm betting Biden will be a one-term President.

I'm betting the Republicans will win back the White House.

I'm wondering which Republican will be President in 2024?

Falling on their swords for the country's benefit is surely a common trait of politicians.

We don’t have to wait until ‘24 to know whether we’ll completely lose our democracy.
If we lose the House and Senate next year, they’ll immediately impeach Biden
and make up something about Harris and impeach her, then we’ll have the next
Speaker as the prez - which will be Dolt 45.

Judging by her demeanor, I would say that Abrams will go the slow, steady route
of serving as Governor for at least a term or two, then maybe announce,
but it won’t matter by then, because Dems will be shut out by the autocracy.
Plus, can you imagine if Abrams ran and won against Mar-A-Lardo
what kind of immense escalation of racial hatred that would produce?

Won't happen. Oh, they might impeach Biden but there is no way they'll have enough Republicans in the Senate to throw him out. The numbers actually favor the Dems in the Senate midterms so at best The Republicans can only hope for a one or two seat majority, certainly not enough for the two thirds needed to overthrow Biden.

As for Abrams, yes, earning her wings as Governor first makes a lot of sense, but if we're talking the end of life as we've known it, I wouldn't rule out a draft Stacey movement.

And as far as the racial hatred goes, well, that's going to happen anyway, isn't it? :(

Yeah, I see your point about the Senate,
but the press seems hell-bent on painting
over everything Biden does while shining up,
with spotlights, their mural of “steadfast”
Rethuglicans while we have a large group of
people who often vote with their media-swayed
emotions rather than through even basic analysis.
Most of the country really have progressive desires,
but it takes a cherished corporate media to tell
them that they don’t. It appears to be working.

Also, I said “immense escalation of racial hatred.”

I fully understand the innocence of this question so be gentle in telling me what a blind fool I am but what exactly has Biden done that is an impeachable offense?

Nothing that I can see, but that has never stopped the GOP from making shit up
while the desperate cult members all agree. Tho he’s been slow talking and fumbles
about (which is definitely not something we need now), he’s accomplished more than
I really expected in such a short time.

Oh, don't worry. I'm sure they'll come up with something. My guess is they'll connect him to whatever Hunter Biden is doing.

There is a chance we could finally wise up but, I fear Rostasi is right about the media-swayed emotions.

Yeah, they already play the game of Biden as illegitimate president,
so that may be enough right there.

I tend to agree with this assessment.

Scientists just came to a disturbing conclusion about the political divide in the United States.

I used to say that it would take some kind of “event” that would unite most of the people - and, actually, there has been a uniting factor with the pandemic - but, unfortunately, we have disregarded the sheer strength of stupidity and forceful brainwashing that has played on people’s weaknesses.

Yeah, that's true about economic insecurity,
but you still have families who have even more
cash on hand thanks to extended unemployment
benefits and $300/month child tax credits that are
cutting child poverty in half. Yes, there's inflation,
but it's nothing like the inflation in the 70s and 80s.
Now, it's a result of a grand anomaly and will peak
very soon if not already done so. Meanwhile, the press
screams about the family that buys 12 gallons of milk
a week as if that's normal and tries to make a grand
issue out of it by stating that each household is
paying $175 extra a month. We need loudmouth
Dems shouting about wages hitting record highs
and the lowest jobless claims in 50+ years.
But, you know: "INFLATION!"

Another thing to watch for is to see whether Jerome Powell,
a Republican, decides to “accidentally” trigger a recession by raising rates.
Watch for catchwords in the media like, “tapering” and
watch the economy tank just before the election.

Last election and the election before that were also framed as choosing between autocracy and democracy.... Exactly how many times are we gonna get to choose?

The political and economic structures of the US are too vast and entrenched at this point to be threatened by just some president. The idea that we have the power to really influence those structures by just voting is kind of childish at this point.

Actually, it's been a choice for decades, but Americans are so myopic, that it's never, truly, a thought-out decision.
It's often expressed as "the guy" who'll be the savior. Charles is right when it comes to the vastness of the various
problems (or maybe the one BIG problem). I think that's the one aspect of the right-wing approach that stands out:
ingrain and fortify within small and large government(s).

Sure but then the end of the world rhetoric takes on a different tone... If it's been that way for decades maybe we'll be saying the same **** in another decade

There's a difference between predicted high-wind forecasts and
actually seeing the funnel cloud coming over the horizon. If you
didn't take action when you heard the news from experts, then
you'll certainly have a harder time preparing each day while the
danger approaches.

You know people have been talking about the expansion of the power of the executive but this hasn't taken the form of making the president more able to just do what he wants damn the torpedoes, it's just allowed him to make war in ways that benefits the entrenched political and economic interests of America without having to consult the electorate.

Trump for all his rhetoric about changing things just was more brazen about doing things that benefited the elites, and more brazen about doing the war on terror harder. And now Biden is taking up much that Trump did like selling weapons to the Saudis, brutalizing the border, rattling the sabers with China, cause that's just what America's entrenched interests want.

The only only thing the electorate decide is whether we're meaner or nicer to the blacks and the gays. Bernie tried to make the seemingly small change of shifting focus onto the actual people in America and their needs but this was so unspeakable to America's entrenched interests that the idea couldn't even be entertained in public debate.

Tbf Trump was trying pretty hard to use the same executive power domestically.. especially to build the wall. It's true that executive power is most pronounced with warfare but i do think the president has more sway than they used to generally as well.

But i was just saying when you give the pitch we are voting to save our democracy and then you do that again the next time and the next time etc it starts to feel like standard campaign propaganda.

It would seem that way if the person hearing it was acting like an empty
vessel into which anything can be poured. Yeah, there are way too many
people like that - hearing and/or looking for the reduced versions of things
that they can use to emotionally come to conclusions - and that's why an
educated populace is a dangerous populace to fanatics.

Generations that were older than me used to unequivocally trust people in
various professional positions. That included various kinds of doctors (even
psychiatrists) and all kinds of media types, and even lawyers. There's all kinds
of reasons for that to have changed, somewhat, in the past 50+ years especially,
but you still have a slight variation of that same ideal when it comes to the
acceptance or not of what's being fed to you on a daily basis thru all of these
media channels.

If someone is being told that democracy needs to be saved and they just
swallow that statement without question ... and then they're told it again and
again, yeah, of course, they'll become cynical and stop believing. The point is to
investigate the claim (if it's your first time hearing it) or if you've been hearing
it again and again and you have a history of, at least, basic rational analysis,
you'll know right away whether it's crap talk or not. The signs for all of this have
existed for a long time and too many people take the most basic of basics way
of dealing with things. Basic can be good in some instances, but really not good
when it comes to most areas satisfying the body politic.

Why did we have 7 million more votes for the Dem, but didn't have anywhere
near an equal percentage rise in the Congress? Yes, some complex reasons,
but also a simple one exists where people didn't understand the importance of
Congress for the whole of democracy. Kind of like: "Oh, Joe will take care of it."

Would it be a fair point to say that the dems are being way too soft on those who took part in the insurrection? Anyone who had an active part in that should be receiving years, not months or ****ing days, and anyone who organised it should be looking at close to a life sentence. It's sedition and treason, plain and simple, and if Biden terrified the right's supporters by sending these people to prison - proper prison, not some ****ing resort where they can kick back and write their poxy memoirs - for real terms, real sentences, maybe, just maybe they'd think twice before doing it again.

Trump's supporters should have been scared of Biden's revenge. Instead he and his party went "can't we all get along?" and though they gave him the finger, he did basically nothing. Few slaps on the wrist, few token prison sentences, don't do it again or we'll be cross. Imagine if the positions were reversed? Gallows, man. Gallows.

Only one side is terrified now of the other getting into power, and it's the ones who are waiting to drag your country down into a Philip K Dick/George Orwell-inspired terror state of fascism. Revenge, punishment and reprisals when/if the RepublicaNazis get back in, himming, hawing, shrugging, smiling weakly when the dems are in control. It's their own fault. Go ****ing hard or get the **** out of the way and be ready to bend over. They have had four years and really they've wasted them in terms of pushing back and proving that they have balls. Sadly, I'd have to say at the moment America deserves the manic Right, and that's what it's likely to get. "The Day Truth Died in America"....

That time probably came at the latest when America won WW2 and inherited half the world's wealth and spent the next decades trying to hold onto every penny of it. Trump's just a symptom of how diseased the republic has become and the Dems have been part of it all along.

Sure he can DO stuff, or try to do stuff, but just imagine if he tried to dismantle or defund the CIA or end US military operations overseas. If he wasn't outright assassinated I imagine he'd find himself immediately sidelined and the the powers that be would make damn sure he wasn't re-elected.

You sound like we should be acting like one of those banana republics. Punishing the other side for being the other side has only resulted in revenge wars upon revenge wars. Yes, those involved in the insurrection should be brought to justice, but we also need to show mercy. Yes, the high profile offenders should do some real time, hopefully with some of the people they despise the most, but maybe the average dupe who got drawn into the mess should get a break. Maybe I'm being naive, but, maybe if we can all realize none of us are inherently evil (well, most of us, anyway), we can find a way to the light at the end of the tunnel.

I mean there has to be a reason why Martin Luther King prevailed in history and Adolf Hitler didn't, right?