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-   -   A Paradox to Solve (https://www.musicbanter.com/lounge/33355-paradox-solve.html)

The Unfan 09-28-2008 07:16 PM
Its simple math. I have seen 21 but I've known the answer to this question since around 5th grade.

Fyrenza 09-28-2008 07:17 PM
thats what i get for not watching tv :yikes:

right you are UnFan

want another one?

RUPERT 09-28-2008 07:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RUPERT (Post 525255)
THIS IS RIDICULOUS!

OK, SO YOU HAVE 3 BOXES ON A TABLE.

TWO BOXES CONTAIN VOUCHERS FOR DOG****, ONE BOX CONTAINS A VOUCHER FOR A MEDIEVAL CASTLE. (OBVIOUSLY YOU WANT THE FRICKIN MEDIEVAL CASTLE).

SO YOU PICK A BOX AT RANDOM AND YOU CLUTCH IT TIGHTLY TO YOUR CHEST.

YOU ARE THEN GIVEN THE OPTION TO OPEN UP ONE OF THE 2 BOXES ON THE TABLE, (THE TWO THAT YOU DIDN'T PICK), AND SEE WHAT'S INSIDE.

OOH. WELL WHADD'YA KNOW, IT'S A VOUCHER FOR DOG****.

SO NOW YOU'RE LEFT WTH JUST 2 UNOPENED BOXES. ONE UNOPENED BOX IS STILL ON THE TABLE AND ONE UNOPENED BOX IS BEING TIGHTLY CLUTCHED TO YOUR CHEST.

ONE OF THESE BOXES CONTAINS THE CASTLE VOUCHER, AND THE OTHER CONTAINS THE DOG**** VOUCHER.


...HOW CAN THE ODDS OF PICKING THE MEDIEVAL CASTLE BOX BE ANYTHING OTHER THAN 1-IN-2, REGARDLESS OF ANY LAST MINUTE SWITCH??

Can you tell me where I'm going wrong please

Wifey Boozer 09-28-2008 07:21 PM
You have one post.

RUPERT 09-28-2008 07:22 PM
that doesn't make me any less of a person



Will you help me to understand?

Fyrenza 09-28-2008 08:08 PM
by switching you double the probability of finding the car voucher from 1/3 to 2/3. Switching is only not advantageous if you initially choose the 'right' box, which happens with probability 1/3.

With probability 1/3, you initially choose one of two 'wrong' boxes; when the other 'wrong' box is opened, switching yields the 'right' box with more certainty. The total probability of winning when switching is thus 2/3.

cardboard adolescent 09-28-2008 08:08 PM
Ok, when you know nothing about the situation each box has a 1/3 chance of containing what you want.

So, to start, it looks like this: 1/3, 1/3, 1/3
then you pick a box, so now you have 1/3 chance of having it right, 2/3 that it's one of the other boxes.

when you reveal what's inside of one of the other boxes, there's still a 2/3 chance that you made the wrong decision, but now that entire 2/3 rests on the box that hasn't been eliminated, since you know it can't be the other one. so now your odds are 1/3 that you have the right box, and 2/3 that it's the other one. so you should switch.

cardboard adolescent 09-28-2008 08:11 PM
/redundancy

that's not really a paradox anyway, here's a fun paradox:

consider a set of all sets which do not contain themselves as a member. would this set contain itself?

or

the next statement is true:
the previous statement is false

Fyrenza 09-28-2008 08:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cardboard adolescent (Post 525280)
/redundancy

that's not really a paradox anyway
ok mr smarty pants :p:

it was a paradoxical puzzle

are we happy now? :rofl:

Wifey Boozer 09-28-2008 09:00 PM
If this sentence is true then Santa Clause is real.

THAT's a paradox.


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