A Paradox to Solve (house, quote, Ching, hands, Hang)

~~Fyrenza~~ · 09-28-2008, 05:49 PM

i thought everyone might enjoy trying their hands at solving a paradox:

Quote:

You're given a choice of three boxes: In one, is a voucher for a car; in the others, vouchers for goats. You pick the first box, but before you open it, you get to open one of the others to see what's inside it, which is a voucher for a goat. At this point, you are allowed to change your mind and take the last box instead of the first one. Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

simplephysics · 09-28-2008, 05:52 PM

Goats!!!

~~Fyrenza~~ · 09-28-2008, 06:07 PM

well

horses are actually valuable

jackhammer · 09-28-2008, 06:09 PM

I could certainly find more use for a goat: Milk, cheese and meat. BTW never change your choice.

~~The Unfan~~ · 09-28-2008, 06:40 PM

Switching improves the odds of winning. Let us assume you pick box 1. The number of the box you picked doesn't matter but it helps explain the reasoning. If you pick another box just swap 1 with the number you chose and you'd get the same result.

If the car is indeed box number 1 than you could reveal either 2 or 3. However if the car is in 2 you have to reveal 3 and if the car is in 3 you have to reveal 2. 2 out of 3 times you had to reveal a specific box, and in those cases the switch is the win. 2 out 3 times you should switch.

RUPERT · 09-28-2008, 06:46 PM

no advantage

thread locked

Wifey Boozer · 09-28-2008, 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Unfan

Switching improves the odds of winning. Let us assume you pick box 1. The number of the box you picked doesn't matter but it helps explain the reasoning. If you pick another box just swap 1 with the number you chose and you'd get the same result.

If the car is indeed box number 1 than you could reveal either 2 or 3. However if the car is in 2 you have to reveal 3 and if the car is in 3 you have to reveal 2. 2 out of 3 times you had to reveal a specific box, and in those cases the switch is the win. 2 out 3 times you should switch.

I also read Bringing Down The House & seen 21

RUPERT · 09-28-2008, 07:07 PM

THIS IS RIDICULOUS!

OK, SO YOU HAVE 3 BOXES ON A TABLE.

TWO BOXES CONTAIN VOUCHERS FOR DOG****, ONE BOX CONTAINS A VOUCHER FOR A MEDIEVAL CASTLE. (OBVIOUSLY YOU WANT THE FRICKIN MEDIEVAL CASTLE).

SO YOU PICK A BOX AT RANDOM AND YOU CLUTCH IT TIGHTLY TO YOUR CHEST.

YOU ARE THEN GIVEN THE OPTION TO OPEN UP ONE OF THE 2 BOXES ON THE TABLE, (THE TWO THAT YOU DIDN'T PICK), AND SEE WHAT'S INSIDE.

OOH. WELL WHADD'YA KNOW, IT'S A VOUCHER FOR DOG****.

SO NOW YOU'RE LEFT WTH JUST 2 UNOPENED BOXES. ONE UNOPENED BOX IS STILL ON THE TABLE AND ONE UNOPENED BOX IS BEING TIGHTLY CLUTCHED TO YOUR CHEST.

ONE OF THESE BOXES CONTAINS THE CASTLE VOUCHER, AND THE OTHER CONTAINS THE DOG**** VOUCHER.

...HOW CAN THE ODDS OF PICKING THE MEDIEVAL CASTLE BOX BE ANYTHING OTHER THAN 1-IN-2, REGARDLESS OF ANY LAST MINUTE SWITCH??

a

~~The Unfan~~ · 09-28-2008, 07:08 PM

Also for a strictly mathematical way to view it. When you pick the door at the start you have a 1/3 chance of being correct. Revealing one of the goats doesn't change the fact that you had a 2/3 chance of being wrong initially and therefore you still have a 2/3 chance of being correct by switching. The information doesn't change the odds.

Wifey Boozer · 09-28-2008, 07:11 PM

Please admit that analogy is from 21 and I will be psychologically sound for the night.

09-28-2008, 06:09 PM	#4 (permalink)
jackhammer Ba and Be. Join Date: May 2007 Location: This Is England Posts: 17,331	I could certainly find more use for a goat: Milk, cheese and meat. BTW never change your choice. __________________ It be my music and film collection. “A cynic by experience, a romantic by inclination and now a hero by necessity.”

09-28-2008, 06:40 PM	#5 (permalink)
~~The Unfan~~ Account Disabled Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Methville Posts: 2,116	Switching improves the odds of winning. Let us assume you pick box 1. The number of the box you picked doesn't matter but it helps explain the reasoning. If you pick another box just swap 1 with the number you chose and you'd get the same result. If the car is indeed box number 1 than you could reveal either 2 or 3. However if the car is in 2 you have to reveal 3 and if the car is in 3 you have to reveal 2. 2 out of 3 times you had to reveal a specific box, and in those cases the switch is the win. 2 out 3 times you should switch. Last edited by The Unfan; 09-28-2008 at 06:53 PM.

09-28-2008, 07:07 PM	#8 (permalink)
RUPERT Groupie Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 6	THIS IS RIDICULOUS! OK, SO YOU HAVE 3 BOXES ON A TABLE. TWO BOXES CONTAIN VOUCHERS FOR DOG**, ONE BOX CONTAINS A VOUCHER FOR A MEDIEVAL CASTLE. (OBVIOUSLY YOU WANT THE FRICKIN MEDIEVAL CASTLE). SO YOU PICK A BOX AT RANDOM AND YOU CLUTCH IT TIGHTLY TO YOUR CHEST. YOU ARE THEN GIVEN THE OPTION TO OPEN UP ONE OF THE 2 BOXES ON THE TABLE, (THE TWO THAT YOU DIDN'T PICK), AND SEE WHAT'S INSIDE. OOH. WELL WHADD'YA KNOW, IT'S A VOUCHER FOR DOG. SO NOW YOU'RE LEFT WTH JUST 2 UNOPENED BOXES. ONE UNOPENED BOX IS STILL ON THE TABLE AND ONE UNOPENED BOX IS BEING TIGHTLY CLUTCHED TO YOUR CHEST. ONE OF THESE BOXES CONTAINS THE CASTLE VOUCHER, AND THE OTHER CONTAINS THE DOG** VOUCHER. ...HOW CAN THE ODDS OF PICKING THE MEDIEVAL CASTLE BOX BE ANYTHING OTHER THAN 1-IN-2, REGARDLESS OF ANY LAST MINUTE SWITCH?? a Last edited by RUPERT; 09-28-2008 at 07:08 PM. Reason: this should have been entirely in caps.. now it just looks retarded..

09-28-2008, 07:11 PM	#10 (permalink)
Wifey Boozer Meanie McFeany Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Troy side'ah the dirt, NY Posts: 455	Please admit that analogy is from 21 and I will be psychologically sound for the night. __________________ ... Stalin had a *FANTASTIC* moustache. Formerly known as the Prime Minister of Spain. [backintheubbr]

09-28-2008, 06:07 PM	#3 (permalink)
~~Fyrenza~~ Account Disabled Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: high above the Republic of Texas Posts: 216	well horses are actually valuable

09-28-2008, 06:46 PM	#6 (permalink)
RUPERT Groupie Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 6	no advantage thread locked

09-28-2008, 07:08 PM	#9 (permalink)
~~The Unfan~~ Account Disabled Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Methville Posts: 2,116	Also for a strictly mathematical way to view it. When you pick the door at the start you have a 1/3 chance of being correct. Revealing one of the goats doesn't change the fact that you had a 2/3 chance of being wrong initially and therefore you still have a 2/3 chance of being correct by switching. The information doesn't change the odds.