NHL Thread

[FRED HALE SR.]

Originally Posted by anticipation

?

Weber
Chara
Keith
Karlsson
Doughty
Yandle

Are all better than Suter, who has not only benefitted from arguably the best defenseman in the league now that Lidstrom retired (Weber) but from the overall defensive style that Nashville plays. I see the move to get both of them as a PR coup, but in terms of on-ice production MIN still has a ways to go. Their best players before these signings were two-way savant Mikko Koivu, the ghost of Dany Heatley, and the streaky-at-best Setoguchi. They were planning on having 4 rookies on the roster a week ago, so I think they're going to need to upgrade their overall offensive depth before anyone starts talking about a deep run for Minnesota.

I wouldn't call it a complete PR COUP, Its just the two best players available on both sides of the ice. I agree with Yorke, Parise is overrated in a sense, but he does bring them something besides his offensive skill [LEADERSHIP]

Suter did benefit from The Nashville system and playing alongside Shea, but he is one hell of a defenseman and Minny was thin besides a few youngsters they drafted. I think hoping for more then the playoffs is a stretch, but Minnesota is certainly gonna be fun to watch next year if anything.

[Thom Yorke]

Suter benefiting from Weber goes both ways, but they're both elite defensemen regardless. Suter is the most reliable defenseman in the league IMO. He's not the very best, but his consistency and reliability is up there with anyone in the league.

I think Chara and Weber are at the top, then Suter comes next in a group with Keith and Pietrangelo. If Doughty gets back on a track with a full season as an elite D-man, he's right back up there, but he's been too inconsistent the past couple of years. Still top 10 though.

Karlsson? Ugh... The thing about all of the guys I mentioned is that every single one of them are considered elite both offensively and defensively. I would never put a glorified forward in the conversation for best defenseman in the league. Mike Green 2.0.

[anticipation]

Originally Posted by Thom Yorke

Suter benefiting from Weber goes both ways, but they're both elite defensemen regardless. Suter is the most reliable defenseman in the league IMO. He's not the very best, but his consistency and reliability is up there with anyone in the league.

I think Chara and Weber are at the top, then Suter comes next in a group with Keith and Pietrangelo. If Doughty gets back on a track with a full season as an elite D-man, he's right back up there, but he's been too inconsistent the past couple of years. Still top 10 though.

Karlsson? Ugh... The thing about all of the guys I mentioned is that every single one of them are considered elite both offensively and defensively. I would never put a glorified forward in the conversation for best defenseman in the league. Mike Green 2.0.

I like Pietrangelo as a potential top 5 guy too, but Karlsson is pretty untouchable in the role he plays. These past few seasons we've seen a premium on puck-movers and guys who can run a powerplay, two things Karlsson does better than nearly anyone not named Campbell. Hell, Wideman got 5 mil. from Feaster this year and he's a 4-5-6 guy at best. Karlsson plays over 25 minutes a night and has a very respectable +/- for a 22 yr. old playing on a middle-of-the-pack Senators team. There's a good reason he got a Norris nomination this year despite not having the shutdown ability that we classically associate with premier defensemen.

As far as reliability, Suter can definitely be counted on in his own end but there are a host of guys who do what he does just as well. Seabrook, Girardi, Gorges, Beauchemin, these guys all faced a higher QoC and had comparable Corsi and Corsi/Rel numbers despite playing more PK minutes than Suter. I like the guy as a player but I think that he got a massive overpayment in a market that massively overpays D-men. I like the move to get him but we'll see just how much he improves the mediocre defense the Wild iced last year.

[FRED HALE SR.]

Originally Posted by anticipation

I like Pietrangelo as a potential top 5 guy too, but Karlsson is pretty untouchable in the role he plays. These past few seasons we've seen a premium on puck-movers and guys who can run a powerplay, two things Karlsson does better than nearly anyone not named Campbell. Hell, Wideman got 5 mil. from Feaster this year and he's a 4-5-6 guy at best. Karlsson plays over 25 minutes a night and has a very respectable +/- for a 22 yr. old playing on a middle-of-the-pack Senators team. There's a good reason he got a Norris nomination this year despite not having the shutdown ability that we classically associate with premier defensemen.

As far as reliability, Suter can definitely be counted on in his own end but there are a host of guys who do what he does just as well. Seabrook, Girardi, Gorges, Beauchemin, these guys all faced a higher QoC and had comparable Corsi and Corsi/Rel numbers despite playing more PK minutes than Suter. I like the guy as a player but I think that he got a massive overpayment in a market that massively overpays D-men. I like the move to get him but we'll see just how much he improves the mediocre defense the Wild iced last year.

I seem to remember Visnovsky being nominated for a Norris also, and he couldn't knock a 90 year old women off a puck. There is definitely a premium on puck moving defenseman with great skating ability but thats always at a loss around your own net. Been awhile since there was some hockey talk, good to see you guys upping the post counts.

I gotta call you on Beauchemin and Girardi though neither one of those guys can carry Suters puck. I agree both Parise and Suter were overpaid, but when you compare those deals to what Edmonton gave Dustin Penner they immediately look like great pickups.

[anticipation]

Originally Posted by FRED HALE SR.

I seem to remember Visnovsky being nominated for a Norris also, and he couldn't knock a 90 year old women off a puck. There is definitely a premium on puck moving defenseman with great skating ability but thats always at a loss around your own net. Been awhile since there was some hockey talk, good to see you guys upping the post counts.

I gotta call you on Beauchemin and Girardi though neither one of those guys can carry Suters puck. I agree both Parise and Suter were overpaid, but when you compare those deals to what Edmonton gave Dustin Penner they immediately look like great pickups.

Yeah, because Lidstrom won all his hardware by hitting guys right? Visnovsky didn't get nominated the past two years, but a seriously strong case could've been made for last year when he had absolutely insane statistical evidence that showed he faced the toughest competition on his team, had the highest relative +/- on his team, and put up better defensive numbers relative to his zone starts than Weber or Chara. It's easy to discredit him with the old eye test, but the reality of the situation is that players who can wheel and deal while maintaining positive possession help their teams win more frequently than guys who simply have active sticks and play a bruising style. I feel like Girardi was this year's Visnovsky; he and partner Ryan McDonagh faced some of the stiffest competition in the notoriously run-and-gun east for one of the best defensive teams (NYR), and yet still managed to lead the league in playoff points by a defenseman. I like him for the wide array of intangibles he brings, and I think it's safe to say that without him the Rangers would suffer greatly on both ends of the ice. Beauchemin is a defensive stalwart on a terrible team, but he doesn't have the offensive abilities that Suter does.

I think that we get caught up with player's value to the point where we think that if they are simply inserted into a line up the performance of the group will drastically increase. Suter is one of those guys with tremendous individual skills and the ability to make heady plays, but when you break down what he actually brings as opposed to what he's paid to "do" we quickly see that having a diverse top six with a good mix of offensive and defensive responsibility is more valuable than just bringing one guy who has these attributes in spades.

[FRED HALE SR.]

Originally Posted by anticipation

Yeah, because Lidstrom won all his hardware by hitting guys right? Visnovsky didn't get nominated the past two years, but a seriously strong case could've been made for last year when he had absolutely insane statistical evidence that showed he faced the toughest competition on his team, had the highest relative +/- on his team, and put up better defensive numbers relative to his zone starts than Weber or Chara. It's easy to discredit him with the old eye test, but the reality of the situation is that players who can wheel and deal while maintaining positive possession help their teams win more frequently than guys who simply have active sticks and play a bruising style. I feel like Girardi was this year's Visnovsky; he and partner Ryan McDonagh faced some of the stiffest competition in the notoriously run-and-gun east for one of the best defensive teams (NYR), and yet still managed to lead the league in playoff points by a defenseman. I like him for the wide array of intangibles he brings, and I think it's safe to say that without him the Rangers would suffer greatly on both ends of the ice. Beauchemin is a defensive stalwart on a terrible team, but he doesn't have the offensive abilities that Suter does.

I think that we get caught up with player's value to the point where we think that if they are simply inserted into a line up the performance of the group will drastically increase. Suter is one of those guys with tremendous individual skills and the ability to make heady plays, but when you break down what he actually brings as opposed to what he's paid to "do" we quickly see that having a diverse top six with a good mix of offensive and defensive responsibility is more valuable than just bringing one guy who has these attributes in spades.

Lidstrom won all those cups because Detroit had all star teams and he just happened to be an all star also. I wouldn't call Niedermayer a beast also, but he knew how to control people along the boards and play both ways that was my point in calling out the mike greens and Visnovskys of the world. I don't discount what Mcdonagh and Girardi did this year, but i think offensive defenseman such as Girardi often pick up offensive numbers at the expense of team play. Beauchemin hasn't been the same since the Cup run. Hes kind of been getting pushed around lately, too bad Scotty can't save him now. I think hes dropped to a top 4 guy on defense and Cam Fowler looked like dog**** on ice last year which didnt help.

I don't think we disagree on what Suter brings, i think we are just wording differently and view what makes a great defense differently. I also think hes not a world stopper and hes not gonna make their defense better unless they can get their kids rolling. I just value offensive defensman less each year as they seem to get pushed around and that usually leads to the puck in your own net.

[Thom Yorke]

Really not a fan of advanced statistics. I think Seidenberg ranked as one of the worst in the league for CORSI and he was a beast, and is very clearly Boston's 2nd best d-man. It's all about the eye-test for me for defensive play. Offensive statistics are more reliable for me but even then, I put more emphasis into watching them play.

[anticipation]

Shea Weber signed an offer sheet from the Flyers for upwards of $100 mil. over 14 years this evening. Who thinks Poile will match?

[hip hop bunny hop]

Well, Preds still have Peks. But, yeah, **** >

[Thom Yorke]

So the actual details of the offer sheet is that it's 14 years, $110 million ($7.857 million cap hit), paying Weber $56 million over the first 4 years and $80 million over the first 6 years.

2012-13 (age 27): $1 million salary + $13 million signing bonus (league maximum $14M)
2013-14 (28): $1 million salary + $13 million signing bonus (league maximum $14M)
2014-15 (29): $1 million salary + $13 million signing bonus (league maximum $14M)
2015-16 (30): $1 million salary + $13 million signing bonus (league maximum $14M)
2016-17 (31): $4 million salary + $8 million signing bonus (total $12 million)
2017-18 (32): $4 million salary + $8 million signing bonus (total $12 million)
2018-19 (33): $6 million salary
2019-20 (34): $6 million salary
2020-21 (35): $6 million salary
2021-22 (36): $6 million salary
2022-23 (37): $3 million salary
2023-24 (38): $1 million salary
2024-25 (39): $1 million salary
2025-26 (40): $1 million salary
TOTAL: $110 million

That's a huge pill to swallow for the Predators. For a team that doesn't have the budget of others, Holmgren really put them in a bind here with that much loaded onto the front-end. You'd have to think that Nashville would do everything they can to match it, but they may have to make room for all that salary, which would further deplete their roster.

It's really a shame. The Predators organization has managed to get people in friggin' Tennessee interested in hockey and they could lose two franchise players in one offseason for nothing (well, 4 first rounders, but that won't help them in the short term). Preds ownership has to weigh biting the bullet on this massive salary vs. the money they'd lose out on by losing two superstars, and I don't envy them for having to make that decision.

As for Weber himself, he has to do what he has to do. It's odd to see a player sign an offer sheet of this magnitude a year before he hits UFA status, but you can't pass a deal up like this when the CBA has expired and contracts could come plummeting down.