Stuff That Is Awesome

~~John Wilkes Booth~~ · 02-08-2015, 11:00 PM

the scoring in hockey/soccer is much more random than in say football or baseball. those sports allow for more incremental progress and strategy, sort of like chess.

even in hockey i'm assuming skill would be a major factor it's just whatever league the study was done on probably had a relatively standard level of skill throughout its teams... not to say there wasn't variation but say in a pro league or something like that of any sport you will only get people from within a certain skillset. i guarantee if you tried to get a random group of unskilled hockey players to play against an expert team 100 times in a row you wouldn't be looking at the same kind of ratio you would look at if you flipped a coin 100 times.

DwnWthVwls · 02-08-2015, 11:06 PM

Also, statistics can be skewed however you want if you do it right.

What is this luck though? Other than a ball bouncing in some random direction I can't think of a situation where luck is a factor. I don't watch sports so if someone could clue me in that'd be cool.

Ninetales · 02-08-2015, 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Wilkes Booth

i guarantee if you tried to get a random group of unskilled hockey players to play against an expert team 100 times in a row you wouldn't be looking at the same kind of ratio you would look at if you flipped a coin 100 times.

oh ok well ya this is absolutely true. I was talking about pro leagues.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DwnWthVwls

Also, statistics can be skewed however you want if you do it right.

What is this luck though? Other than a ball bouncing in some random direction I can't think of a situation where luck is a factor. I don't watch sports so if someone could clue me in that'd be cool.

erm what do you mean stats can be skewed however you want?

the thing is, using hockey as my standard example since I know it the best, a puck going in some random direction is basically the entire game. so tons of these small, seemingly insignificant bounces happen and then eventually result in one goal. wins/losses are actually a very poor measure for predicting future performance in hockey, and goals scored/allowed aren't very good either.

oh and I should also mention that hockey relies heavily on goaltenders, a position in which variance is extremely high. which also makes predicting outcomes even more difficult.

DwnWthVwls · 02-08-2015, 11:48 PM

Statistics can be manipulated by asking the right questions and not sampling things that would make the stat you're trying to prove wrong. Not saying whatever study you looked at did this but it's something to keep in mind.

Obviously not things like goals scored in a season but I'd like to see the study you mentioned, it sounds sketchy.

Ninetales · 02-09-2015, 12:29 AM

do you think that in every single nhl game the team that wins is the more skilled?

~~Cuthbert~~ · 02-09-2015, 02:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Batlord

Well, in their defense, at least they're not soccer fans.

Can only recall a single riot yesterday and only 22 people died in it so not too bad really for a weekend of action.

DwnWthVwls · 02-09-2015, 07:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ninetales

do you think that in every single nhl game the team that wins is the more skilled?

I've never watched a game before.

Key · 02-09-2015, 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ninetales

do you think that in every single nhl game the team that wins is the more skilled?

Nope. Sometimes it's due to a crappy play that gives the other team the win.

Chula Vista · 02-09-2015, 09:27 AM

More preparation and execution than luck in most cases.

Quote:

Tom Brady did a long interview with Sports Illustrated's Peter King about the two fourth-quarter touchdown drives that led to the New England Patriots' 28-24 Super Bowl victory over the Seattle Seahawks.

Brady goes through the drives play by play, breaking down what he saw and how he was able to overcome a 10-point deficit against the NFL's best defense.

A lot of what Brady talks about has to do with preparation. He told King he knew entering the game that Seattle was too good defending deep throws, so his plan was to dink and dunk the Seahawks with four-yard passes all night — death by a thousand cuts, if you will.

His explanation of the 21-yard gain to set up New England's first touchdown of the quarter is particularly insightful. He says he knew the play would work because he saw Seattle drop its defensive linemen into coverage in this exact situation by watching tape over and over and over again.

We had two guys running opposite seams, Gronk and LaFell. Both safeties had vision on that. Julian's route was supposed to be four yards. This was identical to a play we ran [against Seattle] in 2012. I hit Wes Welker. They played that same coverage against Welker in 2012, with a lineman dropping back on him in coverage in the short middle, and I hit him. I watched a lot of tape — our game with them from two years ago three times, Dallas this year multiple times, their championship game against Green Bay three times. I'm always trying to match the perfect amount of physical preparation with the right mental preparation. Anyway, that is what makes my relationship with Josh (Patriots offensive coordinator) so special, because I feel at this point we've been together so long and we know each other so well and we're so synchronized. This game, awesome. This play was an example of that. He knew it would work. He knew Julian would be there for me, and he was. Watching that tape, I saw it from a couple of years ago — and Josh saw it, too.

You aren't going to go out and impose your will on the Seattle defense. The only way to beat it is to analyze its tendencies and take what it is willing to give you.

Ninetales · 02-09-2015, 12:21 PM

^ everyone watches tape

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ki

Nope. Sometimes it's due to a crappy play that gives the other team the win.

bingo

02-08-2015, 11:00 PM	#1271 (permalink)
~~John Wilkes Booth~~ Account Disabled Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 2,235	the scoring in hockey/soccer is much more random than in say football or baseball. those sports allow for more incremental progress and strategy, sort of like chess. even in hockey i'm assuming skill would be a major factor it's just whatever league the study was done on probably had a relatively standard level of skill throughout its teams... not to say there wasn't variation but say in a pro league or something like that of any sport you will only get people from within a certain skillset. i guarantee if you tried to get a random group of unskilled hockey players to play against an expert team 100 times in a row you wouldn't be looking at the same kind of ratio you would look at if you flipped a coin 100 times.

02-09-2015, 12:29 AM	#1275 (permalink)
Ninetales Music Addict Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: livin wild Posts: 2,179	do you think that in every single nhl game the team that wins is the more skilled?