NHL Thread

Thom Yorke · 02-09-2014, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ninetales

who should win the norris then?

Last year I thought Suter should have been the runaway winner.

2011/12 should have been either Chara or Weber.

2010/11 should have been Chara/Weber yet again.

You should have to be great at both ends of the ice, but more importantly in your own end. It is the trophy for best defenseman after all. While Lidstrom won based on reputation, Karlsson and Subban won solely on their offensive abilities. Not that offense shouldn't count, but I believe defense should take precedent. I honestly didn't have a complaint for a while before the last three winners.

While I'm not happy with Subban's win, Karlsson's win was an absolute embarrassment to the history of the trophy. I have never seen a defenseman win the Norris logging the 7th highest PK TOI/game among d-men on his own team and I really hope I don't see that happen again.

Ninetales · 02-09-2014, 02:08 PM

Here's a graph showing some dmen and how many shots against they are on the ice for per 60min this season (should mention its 5on5 only):

Basically I put some of the best guys in here and then added some others for contrast (Fowler/Johnson because they had the highest TOI on their respective teams, and Orpik because he made the olympics haha). I also didnt include Bouwmeester because he is just riding Pietrangelo's coattails.

So Karlsson is on the ice for about 55 shot against/60. League average is basically the same, but Karlsson plays against top competition so it's not that bad. You'll notice Weber has nearly 60 shots against/60. And looking at this just adds to my man crush on Campbell. He has the second lowest SA and plays on Florida. Wow.

Now this is all well and good and it probably looks like Karlsson isnt that great. Here's another graph (yay graphs!)

Now ok this one might require some explanation. So here we have how the percentage of shots they were on for/against (Corsi%). Obviously you want to be on for more shots because shots-->goals. Karlsson is at 54%. so he's been on the ice for 54% shots for and 46% shots against. Thats pretty good especially considering Ottawa not being that great a team. Which is where probably the biggest caveat comes in. Players on good teams will have higher numbers. Keith and Doughty and Chara have much better teammates than Karlsson and Subban. I was going to throw in another graph comparing how good these players are comparative to their team, but I didnt want to overkill this nerd sesh haha. Needless to say Ottawa goes from being a good team with Karlsson to being an average one without. The difference between Subban is even more hilarious and although he doesnt have impressive stats here, compared to how ****ty Montreal is hes amazing. I could do this stuff for the years Karlsson and Subban won but I think theyre pretty similar.

Once again tho Campbell is really great. Like Olympic team/Norris nomination great. And Weber is well.. overrated imo. He allows more shots than Karlsson and provides way less offense. But he has a reputation of being a really great and reputations tend to stick in hockey.

I mean I dont care about trophys really but I have no problem with Karlsson or Subban winning. They make everyone around them better and as much flak as they will always get for not being good defensively, they arent really that bad. And they make up for the higher shots against by getting it into the opponents end more. Keeping the puck is a good way to prevent goals. And im not sure why not playing as much PK minutes is such a huge knock on Karlsson. Its not his decision when he plays.

If its my choice for Norris this year id say Karlsson, Doughty, Campbell as nominations. Karlsson is really great and plays defense. I think thats what the Norris is all about.

Oh and can the Oilers please trade for Campbell good lord.

Thom Yorke · 02-10-2014, 02:28 PM

Haha I really don't want to get into this argument of stats vs. watching them play again (although I appreciate the work), but having Karlsson and Campbell as Norris candidates this year seems pretty nuts to me. Doughty isn't a bad choice though.

I actually agree that Weber is a bit overrated (although he was great for those two years). I think he's someone that benefited tremendously from having a guy like Suter beside him. Those two meshed perfectly with their styles of game.

A lack of PK time is huge to me. You want to be able to help out in every situation, and Karlsson doesn't do that. While technically it isn't his fault that he's not getting PK time, you have to wonder why his coach trusts so many others over him in that role. I've seen more than enough from Karlsson to the point where Id consider him poor defensively. Like I said before, even though he's great for possession numbers, the amount of time they're in the offensive vs. defensive zone is still fairly equal. You need to play well everywhere on the ice.

Paul Smeenus · 02-10-2014, 03:00 PM

Lies > Damn Lies > Statistics

(Just quoting Twain, not looking to join the argument)

Ninetales · 02-10-2014, 03:24 PM

Stats shouldnt really be against the "watching the game" crowd and I donno why theres a need to separate them. Its not like i hate watching the actual games and just crunch numbers all day haha.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thom Yorke

having Karlsson and Campbell as Norris candidates this year seems pretty nuts to me

This seems to be one of those reputation reasons rather than how theyre actually playing. Campbell will always be sorely underrated i guess *sigh*..

I guess my main point with defensemen is that they shouldnt just be there to play in their own zone. That's a terrible strategy to have and why this

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thom Yorke

the amount of time they're in the offensive vs. defensive zone is still fairly equal

is not really true. If youre taking more shots for than against it stands to reason that youre spending more time in the opposing zone. And Karlsson does that.

Karlsson plays over 27min a night (3rd in the league) this year. He will make mistakes. The more time you are on, the more mistakes you are likely going to make, especially if youre playing on a team that isnt that good to begin with. Im willing to bet that the amount of mistakes he makes defensively, compared to guys like Pietrangelo or Weber is not nearly as high as people think especially when compared to what he does at the other end to offset those mistakes.

Also keep in mind that Karlsson has played the most time this year partnered with Cowen who is much more incompetent in his own zone than him. And second most is Methot. Not exactly playing with stars here. Ottawa is a much much better team with Karlsson, so I dont understand why he shouldnt be a Norris candidate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thom Yorke

you have to wonder why his coach trusts so many others over him in that role

NHL coaches do strange things all the time. MacLean put Neil on the pp for longer than Ryan, Turris and MacArthur combined against Boston. Just because Cowen gets more pk time than Karlsson doesnt mean hes better defensively (hes not). Personally I would put Karlsson out more on the pk but hey Doughty is 4th on his team in pk time below the likes of Willie Mitchell, Robyn Regehr and Matt Greene so what can ya do.

Thom Yorke · 02-10-2014, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ninetales

Stats shouldnt really be against the "watching the game" crowd and I donno why theres a need to separate them. Its not like i hate watching the actual games and just crunch numbers all day haha.

This seems to be one of those reputation reasons rather than how theyre actually playing. Campbell will always be sorely underrated i guess *sigh*..

I guess my main point with defensemen is that they shouldnt just be there to play in their own zone. That's a terrible strategy to have and why this

is not really true. If youre taking more shots for than against it stands to reason that youre spending more time in the opposing zone. And Karlsson does that.

Karlsson plays over 27min a night (3rd in the league) this year. He will make mistakes. The more time you are on, the more mistakes you are likely going to make, especially if youre playing on a team that isnt that good to begin with. Im willing to bet that the amount of mistakes he makes defensively, compared to guys like Pietrangelo or Weber is not nearly as high as people think especially when compared to what he does at the other end to offset those mistakes.

Also keep in mind that Karlsson has played the most time this year partnered with Cowen who is much more incompetent in his own zone than him. And second most is Methot. Not exactly playing with stars here. Ottawa is a much much better team with Karlsson, so I dont understand why he shouldnt be a Norris candidate.

NHL coaches do strange things all the time. MacLean put Neil on the pp for longer than Ryan, Turris and MacArthur combined against Boston. Just because Cowen gets more pk time than Karlsson doesnt mean hes better defensively (hes not). Personally I would put Karlsson out more on the pk but hey Doughty is 4th on his team in pk time below the likes of Willie Mitchell, Robyn Regehr and Matt Greene so what can ya do.

I hate how they don't track zone time specifically, but what do you think is the greatest disparity between how much time a player spends in the offensive zone relative to the defensive zone is? I'd be absolutely shocked if anyone had more than a 60/40 split in that regard. I just think you should have to be a 3-zone player and contribute in every situation to be considered one of the best, and Karlsson definitely isn't that.

I actually think Methot is solid as hell. Always thought he was underrated lol.

Ninetales · 02-10-2014, 05:55 PM

Oh yes I agree with you. 60% zone time would be crazy good (sustained through a full season that is). The reason zone time specifically is rarely used is because Corsi is basically the same thing, but with respect to events rather than time. If youre spending large amounts of time in the offensive zone, you will likely be getting a large amount of shot attempts. There is data on which zone players tend to start in though (not really related to this but interesting and informative nonetheless).

I guess my definition of the best would be which player will give my team the best chance to win. Karlsson definitely is that. Maybe he isnt as good without the puck as Chara but he certainly is better with it. Karlsson can get away with turning the puck over more because he more than makes up for by doing what youre team should be set up to do; score goals. He creates more than he gives up. Thats a good player in my eyes.

Methot is ok but not a top line dman by any means.

Paul Smeenus · 02-23-2014, 03:26 PM

Seattle group to visit Vancouver as push for NHL expansion continues | Hockey | The Seattle Times

Burning Down · 02-23-2014, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul Smeenus

Seattle group to visit Vancouver as push for NHL expansion continues | Hockey | The Seattle Times

For a second, I thought they were thinking about moving the Canucks to Seattle. Good that they want to build their own team!

Also, this caught my attention:

Quote:

Any league expansion would likely involve a second team to balance the schedule. Potential expansion sites besides Seattle include Quebec City, Kansas City, Portland, the Toronto suburb of Markham, Saskatoon and Las Vegas.

LMAO, they have got to be fucking kidding me, right? Markham? It's a nice town and all, but I really think that if there's going to be another NHL team in Ontario, it should go to a city that has wanted a team for a long, long time - Hamilton. Actually, they were set to get their team like 5 years ago when the Coyotes were up for sale, but that whole deal fell through.

Paul Smeenus · 02-23-2014, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Burning Down

For a second, I thought they were thinking about moving the Canucks to Seattle. Good that they want to build their own team!

Also, this caught my attention:

LMAO, they have got to be fucking kidding me, right? Markham? It's a nice town and all, but I really think that if there's going to be another NHL team in Ontario, it should go to a city that has wanted a team for a long, long time - Hamilton. Actually, they were set to get their team like 5 years ago when the Coyotes were up for sale, but that whole deal fell through.

Lol yeah, although NY supports three teams & LA supports two, but I really think that Quebec is the frontrunner. I'd love to see the Nordiques back.

I always felt bad for their fans, they move the team to Denver and hoist the cup that same year.

02-10-2014, 05:55 PM	#1677 (permalink)
Ninetales Music Addict Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: livin wild Posts: 2,179	Oh yes I agree with you. 60% zone time would be crazy good (sustained through a full season that is). The reason zone time specifically is rarely used is because Corsi is basically the same thing, but with respect to events rather than time. If youre spending large amounts of time in the offensive zone, you will likely be getting a large amount of shot attempts. There is data on which zone players tend to start in though (not really related to this but interesting and informative nonetheless). I guess my definition of the best would be which player will give my team the best chance to win. Karlsson definitely is that. Maybe he isnt as good without the puck as Chara but he certainly is better with it. Karlsson can get away with turning the puck over more because he more than makes up for by doing what youre team should be set up to do; score goals. He creates more than he gives up. Thats a good player in my eyes. Methot is ok but not a top line dman by any means. Last edited by Ninetales; 02-10-2014 at 06:42 PM.

02-09-2014, 02:08 PM	#1672 (permalink)
Ninetales Music Addict Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: livin wild Posts: 2,179	Here's a graph showing some dmen and how many shots against they are on the ice for per 60min this season (should mention its 5on5 only): Basically I put some of the best guys in here and then added some others for contrast (Fowler/Johnson because they had the highest TOI on their respective teams, and Orpik because he made the olympics haha). I also didnt include Bouwmeester because he is just riding Pietrangelo's coattails. So Karlsson is on the ice for about 55 shot against/60. League average is basically the same, but Karlsson plays against top competition so it's not that bad. You'll notice Weber has nearly 60 shots against/60. And looking at this just adds to my man crush on Campbell. He has the second lowest SA and plays on Florida. Wow. Now this is all well and good and it probably looks like Karlsson isnt that great. Here's another graph (yay graphs!) Now ok this one might require some explanation. So here we have how the percentage of shots they were on for/against (Corsi%). Obviously you want to be on for more shots because shots-->goals. Karlsson is at 54%. so he's been on the ice for 54% shots for and 46% shots against. Thats pretty good especially considering Ottawa not being that great a team. Which is where probably the biggest caveat comes in. Players on good teams will have higher numbers. Keith and Doughty and Chara have much better teammates than Karlsson and Subban. I was going to throw in another graph comparing how good these players are comparative to their team, but I didnt want to overkill this nerd sesh haha. Needless to say Ottawa goes from being a good team with Karlsson to being an average one without. The difference between Subban is even more hilarious and although he doesnt have impressive stats here, compared to how ****ty Montreal is hes amazing. I could do this stuff for the years Karlsson and Subban won but I think theyre pretty similar. Once again tho Campbell is really great. Like Olympic team/Norris nomination great. And Weber is well.. overrated imo. He allows more shots than Karlsson and provides way less offense. But he has a reputation of being a really great and reputations tend to stick in hockey. I mean I dont care about trophys really but I have no problem with Karlsson or Subban winning. They make everyone around them better and as much flak as they will always get for not being good defensively, they arent really that bad. And they make up for the higher shots against by getting it into the opponents end more. Keeping the puck is a good way to prevent goals. And im not sure why not playing as much PK minutes is such a huge knock on Karlsson. Its not his decision when he plays. If its my choice for Norris this year id say Karlsson, Doughty, Campbell as nominations. Karlsson is really great and plays defense. I think thats what the Norris is all about. Oh and can the Oilers please trade for Campbell good lord.

02-10-2014, 02:28 PM	#1673 (permalink)
Thom Yorke Music Addict Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,848	Haha I really don't want to get into this argument of stats vs. watching them play again (although I appreciate the work), but having Karlsson and Campbell as Norris candidates this year seems pretty nuts to me. Doughty isn't a bad choice though. I actually agree that Weber is a bit overrated (although he was great for those two years). I think he's someone that benefited tremendously from having a guy like Suter beside him. Those two meshed perfectly with their styles of game. A lack of PK time is huge to me. You want to be able to help out in every situation, and Karlsson doesn't do that. While technically it isn't his fault that he's not getting PK time, you have to wonder why his coach trusts so many others over him in that role. I've seen more than enough from Karlsson to the point where Id consider him poor defensively. Like I said before, even though he's great for possession numbers, the amount of time they're in the offensive vs. defensive zone is still fairly equal. You need to play well everywhere on the ice.