Yes, and you don't think Vegas has the most sophisticated analysts on the planet coming up with their lines? They don't just pull that stuff out of thin air. They want to make money at all costs, so those lines are no joke.

Oh wait, you don't believe in statistical analysis in sports. My bad, I'll just show myself the door.

Well...


:)

There was an HBO show like 10 years ago about how oddsmakers set their lines. There's an unbelievable amount of number crunching involved is all I was saying. They also adjust based on the bets coming in. Seattle was getting more initial bets but it all eventually settled and Broncos were steadily considered the favorites for basically the entire two weeks leading up to the SB.

It's way different for horse races and boxing and stuff, where there's a lot less number crunching and mostly just opinions and precedence being the only logic for the odds.

vegas makes the lines to make money lmao, i hope u know that. they have a vested interest in baitin the general public lol

my face when i read the bolded part:


http://www.golfwrx.com/forums/upload...1386285385.gif

The opening betting line, using these methods, favored Seattle by 1 1/2 - 2 points. Immediately the money was coming down heavily on Denver. Money didn't come over to Seattle until they were two point underdogs.

The safety on the first snap was largely due to the 12th Man, who were deafening even in New Jersey. In 2005 in Detroit we were utterly blown away by the Steelers fans and all those terrible towels. We never forgot that and weren't about to let it happen again.

But the play that set the tone IMO was Kam Chancellor knocking Damarius Thomas into the stratosphere, literally sending him airborne five yards backwards as the gif I posted shows. That was like the third play on offense for Denver, and from that point forward the Broncos were playing scared. IMO the Seahawks created the Denver mistakes through sheer intimidation.

You're absolutely right about the poor tackling by the Broncos D. The only thing they did well was to contain Marshawn Lynch.

and the award for smartest musicbanter member goes to

Which is exactly why takin spreads as anythin out of the context of betrin is pretty pointless


Smh

Youre right, Vegas actually didnt think the team they were considering two points favorites would win! It all makes so much sense now!

And the lines movin were just cause they changed their minds after in depth statistical analysis!