The American Football Thread

[YorkeDaddy]

Originally Posted by butthead aka 216

well remember the favorite/underdog/point spread stuff is all just vegas gamblin stuff

dont reach too much to conclusions i mean maybe san fran coulda beat denver but they didnt get to the superbowl in some cheap way cause of their schedule. they beat the teams put in front of them and they werent winning 17-14 on last second fgs. they were killin teams

Yes, and you don't think Vegas has the most sophisticated analysts on the planet coming up with their lines? They don't just pull that stuff out of thin air. They want to make money at all costs, so those lines are no joke.

Oh wait, you don't believe in statistical analysis in sports. My bad, I'll just show myself the door.

[Paul Smeenus]

Originally Posted by YorkeDaddy

Yes, and you don't think Vegas has the most sophisticated analysts on the planet coming up with their lines? They don't just pull that stuff out of thin air. They want to make money at all costs, so those lines are no joke.

Well...

Originally Posted by Paul Smeenus

Actually Seattle opened as about two point favorites, but money came down hard on Denver so Vegas adjusted the spread to favor the Broncos.

[YorkeDaddy]

Originally Posted by Paul Smeenus

Well...

There was an HBO show like 10 years ago about how oddsmakers set their lines. There's an unbelievable amount of number crunching involved is all I was saying. They also adjust based on the bets coming in. Seattle was getting more initial bets but it all eventually settled and Broncos were steadily considered the favorites for basically the entire two weeks leading up to the SB.

It's way different for horse races and boxing and stuff, where there's a lot less number crunching and mostly just opinions and precedence being the only logic for the odds.

[butthead aka 216]

Originally Posted by YorkeDaddy

Yes, and you don't think Vegas has the most sophisticated analysts on the planet coming up with their lines? They don't just pull that stuff out of thin air. They want to make money at all costs, so those lines are no joke.

Oh wait, you don't believe in statistical analysis in sports. My bad, I'll just show myself the door.

vegas makes the lines to make money lmao, i hope u know that. they have a vested interest in baitin the general public lol

my face when i read the bolded part:

[Paul Smeenus]

Originally Posted by YorkeDaddy

There was an HBO show like 10 years ago about how oddsmakers set their lines. There's an unbelievable amount of number crunching involved is all I was saying. They also adjust based on the bets coming in. Seattle was getting more initial bets but it all eventually settled and Broncos were steadily considered the favorites for basically the entire two weeks leading up to the SB.

The opening betting line, using these methods, favored Seattle by 1 1/2 - 2 points. Immediately the money was coming down heavily on Denver. Money didn't come over to Seattle until they were two point underdogs.

[Paul Smeenus]

Originally Posted by Thom Yorke

That was one of the greatest performances I've ever seen in sports, period. There was not one element of Seattle's game that wasn't firing on all cylinders. I give almost all credit to them, although I have to say that Denver's execution was flat-out embarrassing. Manning was completely off, their receivers weren't getting any separation and D. Thomas, despite the TD and record reception numbers, had multiple boneheaded plays. Worst of all was their defense though, who simply couldn't make a tackle.

The safety on the first snap was largely due to the 12th Man, who were deafening even in New Jersey. In 2005 in Detroit we were utterly blown away by the Steelers fans and all those terrible towels. We never forgot that and weren't about to let it happen again.

But the play that set the tone IMO was Kam Chancellor knocking Damarius Thomas into the stratosphere, literally sending him airborne five yards backwards as the gif I posted shows. That was like the third play on offense for Denver, and from that point forward the Broncos were playing scared. IMO the Seahawks created the Denver mistakes through sheer intimidation.

You're absolutely right about the poor tackling by the Broncos D. The only thing they did well was to contain Marshawn Lynch.

[YorkeDaddy]

Originally Posted by YorkeDaddy

Yes, and you don't think Vegas has the most sophisticated analysts on the planet coming up with their lines? They don't just pull that stuff out of thin air. They want to make money at all costs, so those lines are no joke.

Oh wait, you don't believe in statistical analysis in sports. My bad, I'll just show myself the door.

Originally Posted by butthead aka 216

vegas makes the lines to make money lmao, i hope u know that. they have a vested interest in baitin the general public lol

my face when i read the bolded part:

and the award for smartest musicbanter member goes to

[butthead aka 216]

Which is exactly why takin spreads as anythin out of the context of betrin is pretty pointless


Smh

[YorkeDaddy]

Originally Posted by butthead aka 216

Which is exactly why takin spreads as anythin out of the context of betrin is pretty pointless


Smh

Youre right, Vegas actually didnt think the team they were considering two points favorites would win! It all makes so much sense now!

[butthead aka 216]

Originally Posted by YorkeDaddy

Youre right, Vegas actually didnt think the team they were considering two points favorites would win! It all makes so much sense now!

And the lines movin were just cause they changed their minds after in depth statistical analysis!