Quote:
Originally Posted by djchameleon
The main reason he picked Mike Pence was to help with that. Mike is the establishment Republican to help him mobilize those states.
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Doesn't matter, Key Republicans are already sitting on the sidelines and polls show he is doing poorly in the midwest right now, which was his strategy to win.
I've been thinking about this a lot so; Trump can't win for the following reasons.
1. Democrat majority:
Trump's utopian card is to turn back the clock to happier times, the only problem is that it's no longer the 1980's, and
the silent majority is now Democrat. Independent voters now identify more with the Democrat Party giving Hillary Clinton a 10% jump in party identity at the polls.
2. Florida
If you look at the interactive map below, Hillary already has a good 26 point lead on the electoral college map, all she really has to do is win Florida and hold the blue wall (mid west, north east) and she's won.
2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map
In order for Trump to win Florida, he has to get the white vote out at a percentage even higher than Romney did. (which was pretty high) The problem is, that this will most likely be offset by the loss of Cuban voters who traditionally vote republican (I can't imagine that they are supercharged to go out and vote for Trump). Polls also show that he is losing the support of college educated whites in this State, which have also traditionally voted Republican.
If Hillary wins Florida this election is more or less over.
3. Trump's strategy (the rust belt)
Trump has dumped the electoral strategy of the last three Republican nominees (Bush, McCain, Romney); trying to win the election by holding the red states, while capturing enough Hispanic votes to flip the swing states, for an alternate strategy; get the white vote out.
There is a theory out there that if Romney had just gotten the white vote a little higher, he would have won in 2012, so Trump has dumped the old strategy in order to get poor disenfranchised whites to the voting booth, and where are there a lot of these disenfranchised whites; the rust belt.
Trump's grand plan then is to flip the blue states that have been described as the United States Brexit, (the mid west & north east) which are filled with disillusioned white voters who use to vote Democrat, and while Trump was previously killing Hillary in the polls amongst blue collar white workers, he's been bleeding everywhere else, and now there are signs that they are turning away from him to. The latest swing state polling is not good for Trump.
He is currently getting crushed in Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire, losing in Iowa and Wisconsin, and in a tie in Ohio.
3. Republican support
For a man who has stated he's a great unifier that gets along with everybody, he sure hasn't been able to unify his party. Here are key people he's missing.
John Kasich (Ohio) Next to Florida this is the most important state in the election, so you would want the support of its Republican governor to get the ground forces operating during an election, but John Kasich can't decide if he'll vote for him, let alone endorse him.
Jeb Bush/Marco Rubio: (Florida) Trump may have the support of the current governor but he only has the token support of Rubio at best, and well...the Bush family skipped the convention.
Scott Walker/Paul Ryan: (Wisconsin) One of the states Trump has been targeting to flip. His relationship with these two have been rocky at best. Walker dropped out of the race to open it up so someone could defeat Trump, and the Wisconsin Republicans made sure he wouldn't win the state during the primaries.
4. Weak Democratic nominee
Normally this would work in favor of a Republican candidate, but not for Trump. So many of the key players are sitting on the sidelines right now, because disassociating yourself with Trump, puts you in an opportune spot to start campaigning for 2020 when he loses.
In fairness to Trump, it's not just his confrontational behavior that's caused a riff in the Republican Party, but his policies. The Republican establishment doesn't like Trump because he is a nationalist not a conservative. His appeal to white working class voters means he won't consider privatizing or cutting social security or medicaid, something that fiscal conservatives and libertarians want done. If he wins, the whole Republican platform would be changed, and the Koch brothers would be SOL.
If the election was currently held today according to the most recent polling data, the results would be 342 Democrats/196 Republicans. That's worse than Romney, but not as bad as McCain.
Damn!, Damn, Damn, Damn! I told myself I would stay away, but I can't help myself when it comes to analyzing music and politics.
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